June 10, 2009

By Brett Hess
Special to NCAA.com

Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

In the investment world, the above is a disclaimer. In the track world, the "form charts" come with no such disclaimer.

Form charts are listings of performances, by event, of all athletes in the meet. They are used to be a predictor of what will happen in the meet. But just like picking stocks, it's certainly not a guarantee. Yet, coaches, athletes and especially fans, are glued to what's happened in the past in the hopes of predicting what will happen in the future.

If you look at the form charts for this week's NCAA Women's Outdoor Track and Field Championships at the University of Arkansas, they will only confuse you. According to the form chart compiled by Track & Field News, the top six teams are separated by only six points. And to make it even more exciting, three of those teams are seeded in the meet's final event: the 1,600-meter relay. This is an event where the top 10 seeded teams are separated by less than two seconds and the Indoor champs, Texas A&M, are seeded 10th.

The Aggies are an excellent place to start our team-by-team run-down. According to the form charts, they are favored by one point over Oregon, 44-43. You figure if the Aggies need just a point - or 10 - in the 1,600-meter relay, they'll be able to get it.

Top seeds for the Aggies include Porscha Lucas (200) and Jessica Beard (400) and the 400-meter relay. Lucas is also seeded sixth in the 100 meters.

Oregon is led by top seeds Brianne Theisen (heptathlon) and Rachel Yurkovich (javelin). Also seeded high is Nicole Blood (second in the 5,000) and Keshia Baker (fourth in the 400).

Coming third with 41 points is LSU, led by sprinters Samantha Henry (third in the 200, fifth in the 100) and Kenyanna Wilson (fourth in the 100). LSU is also seeded second in both relays and has two seeds in the 800 meter run, LaTavia Thomas (fourth) and Brittany Hall (eighth).

Thrower Sarah Stevens, seeded in the top four in all three events, should lead Arizona State (40 points). Stevens is seeded third in the shot put and hammer and fourth in the discus. The Sun Devils also have No. 2 seeds by Charonda Williams (100 and 200) and a No. 3 seed by the 400 meter relay team.

Florida State and Tennessee both come into the championships with projected 37 points. Both the Seminoles and the Vols are led by 1,500-meter stars Susan Kuijken and Sarah Bowman, respectively.