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Andy Wittry | | June 25, 2018

How the College World Series would pan out based on history

Oregon State vs Arkansas

The 2018 College World Series has created first-round matchups between college baseball programs that have previously met on the diamond on just a handful of occasions. Both Oregon State and North Carolina, and Mississippi State and Washington have played each other just five times. Florida and Texas Tech have only shared the field once.

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On the other hand, two potential second-round matchups – Oregon State-Washington and Texas-Texas Tech – have been played roughly 600 times combined.

Just for fun, we analyzed how the College World Series bracket would pan out if past results were indicative of future results. Of course, past performance isn't indicative of future results, but here's what the CWS would look like if that was true.

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For each matchup – the first round games are set and from there on, the matchups are hypothetical – we looked at each team's all-time, head-to-head record against its opponent and the team with the better record advanced. We used this process for the entire bracket to determine a champion.

Here's how this year's College World Series bracket would pan out based solely on historical head-to-head records, with Texas beating Mississippi State in the best-of-three championship series.

Matchup Winner All-Time Series Record Eliminated?
Oregon State vs. North Carolina Oregon State Oregon State leads 4-1 N/A
Mississippi State vs. Washington Mississippi State Mississippi State leads 4-1 N/A
Arkansas vs. Texas Texas Texas leads 74-35 N/A
Florida vs. Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech leads 1-0 N/A
North Carolina vs. Washington N/A N/A N/A
Oregon State vs. Mississippi State Mississippi State Mississippi State leads 2-0 N/A
Arkansas vs. Florida Florida Florida leads 32-31 Arkansas
Texas vs. Texas Tech Texas Texas leads 112-47 N/A
Oregon State vs. UNC/Washington Oregon State OSU leads 4-1/240-190-1 UNC/Washington
Texas Tech vs. Florida Texas Tech Texas Tech leads 1-0 Florida
Mississippi State vs. Oregon State Mississippi State Mississippi State leads 2-0 Oregon State
Texas vs. Texas Tech Texas Texas leads 112-47 Texas Tech
Mississippi State vs. Texas Texas Texas leads 5-4 N/A
Mississippi State vs. Texas Texas Texas leads 5-4 Mississippi State

Here are some interesting tidbits about the all-time series records about the matchups listed above:

  • Oregon State and Washington is the most common matchup of any of the ones above. The Pac-12 foes have played 431 times. North Carolina and Washington, however, have never played. Since Oregon State leads the all-time series against both school, we elected to have the Beavers advance in the elimination bracket above. Three all-time series are separated by just one win: Florida over Arkansas (32-31), Texas over Mississippi State (5-4) and Texas Tech over Florida (1-0)

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Division I
College World Series
June 13-23/24, 2020
TD Ameritrade Park | Omaha, NE

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