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Anthony Chiusano | NCAA.com | June 17, 2021

Here's how often each seed makes the Men's College World Series

Previewing the 2021 College World Series, 2 days ahead of first pitch

In a sport as wildly unpredictable as baseball, just how important is a seed-line when it comes to paving a path to the College World Series?

One part to the answer: No. 1 regional seeds have accounted for more than 75 percent of all CWS participants since the NCAA baseball tournament's current format was introduced in 1999.

CWS 2021: Follow live updates throughout the 2021 College World Series | View the bracket

So, do the top ranked teams have a fast track to Omaha? According to the data, more often than not, yes. But does the team at the very top of the rankings always win it all? History says no. We'll get to that later. First, let's review the tournament format:

The current NCAA tournament system splits the initial 64-team field into 16 four-team regionals. Each quartet is seeded Nos. 1-4, which determines the double-elimination regional schedule. That means we have 16 1-seeds, 16 2-seeds, 16 3-seeds and 16 4-seeds at the start of the tournament.

Here's how regional seed representation has been spread out in the eight-team College World Series field each year from 1999-2021.

How often each regional seed advances to the College World Series (1999-2021):

year 1-seeds 2-seeds 3-seeds 4-seeds
2021 6 1 1 0
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 5 1 2 0
2018 6 1 1 0
2017 6 1 1 0
2016 4 4 0 0
2015 6 1 1 0
2014 5 2 1 0
2013 8 0 0 0
2012 5 1 1 1
2011 7 0 1 0
2010 7 1 0 0
2009 5 2 1 0
2008 7 0 0 1
2007 3 3 2 0
2006 7 1 0 0
2005 7 1 0 0
2004 6 1 1 0
2003 6 1 1 0
2002 7 1 0 0
2001 7 1 0 0
2000 5 2 1 0
1999 7 1 0 0
TOTAL: 132 (75.0%) 27 (15.3%) 15 (8.5%) 2 (1.1%)

According to over two decades worth of data, an average of six out of eight College World Series participants each year are No. 1 regional seeds. The 2013 CWS remains the only example where all eight participants came from the top-seed line.

There have been eight instances of seven No. 1 seeds to make the final field. That includes 2008, when No. 4 seed Fresno State was the outlier. And guess what? Those Cinderella Bulldogs went on to have one of the most surprising title runs in CWS history.

Conversely, 2007 saw just three No. 1 seeds in Omaha — a 21-year low-mark. Oregon State became the first 3-seed under the current format to win a national title that year, beating 1-seed North Carolina in the finals.

We could further examine seed performance in the NCAA baseball tournament and College World Series by looking at national seeds. This concept was also introduced in 1999. Starting that year, the selection committee provided designations for the top eight teams in the field — the first half of regional No. 1 seeds. These teams automatically host a Super Regional, if they advance that far.

The 1-8 labels were provided from 1999-2017. Starting with the 2018 NCAA tournament, the national seed reveal was expanded to 1-16. Now we know exactly where every No. 1 regional seed lines up.

For the purpose of this historical examination though, let's just focus on the top eight. Here's a breakdown of how many have qualified for, and ultimately won, the CWS since 1999:

seed no. cws appearances CWS TITLES
1 14 1
2 15 3
3 15 2
4 11 1
5 12 2
6 11 0
7 11 0
8 11 0
TOTAL: 95 9

This table includes representatives in the 2021 College World Series, which runs from June 19-30. No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 4 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Arizona and No. 7 Mississippi State made the field as top eight seeds, in addition to No. 9 Stanford and a pair of unseeded ACC teams — NC State and Virginia.

You may notice something that certainly stands out at the top of the chart. Only one No. 1 overall seed has actually won the national championship. That honor belongs to Miami (Fla.) in 1999, the very first year of the current tournament format.

The 1999 CWS was also one of the closest times we saw all chalk in Omaha, 1 through 8. Oklahoma State, a regional 2-seed, was the only non-national seed in that year's field. In 2001, it was 2-seed Tennessee that was the lone outlier.

The drought of top national seeds winning in Omaha stands at 21 years after Arkansas failed to make the CWS field in 2021. The Razorbacks are the eighth No. 1 national seed not to advance to the College World Series. Only two have reached the final series once getting there.

So, who does win in Omaha? Here are the DI baseball national champions from 1999-2019, including their regional and national seeds:

*Reminder: National seeds were labeled 1-8 from 1999-2017. This was expanded to 1-16 in 2018.

year champion regional seed national seed
2019 Vanderbilt 1 2
2018 Oregon State 1 3
2017 Florida 1 3
2016 Coastal Carolina 2 N/R
2015 Virginia 3 N/R
2014 Vanderbilt 1 N/R
2013 UCLA 1 N/R
2012 Arizona 1 N/R
2011 South Carolina 1 4
2010 South Carolina 1 N/R
2009 LSU 1 3
2008 Fresno State 4 N/R
2007 Oregon State 3 N/R
2006 Oregon State 1 N/R
2005 Texas 1 N/R
2004 Cal State Fullerton 2 N/R
2003 Rice 1 5
2002 Texas 1 5
2001 Miami (Fla.) 1 2
2000 LSU 1 2
1999 Miami (Fla.) 1 1

A top eight national seed won the College World Series for the first five years after the process was introduced. Top two overall seeds took the title in each of the first three seasons.

That trend has changed course in the following 15 years. Since 2004, 11 of the 16 national champions weren't nationally seeded — including five champs who didn't even host regionals. In 2019 though, No. 2 national seed Vanderbilt became the third straight top-three seed to lift the trophy.

What the data shows us is that while regional hosts have accounted for three-quarters of all CWS participants and eventual national champions since 1999, a top-eight national seed doesn't always guarantee success once in Omaha. 

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Division I
Baseball Championship
June 19-30, 2021
TD Ameritrade Park | Omaha, NE

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