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David Seifert | DIBaseball.com | January 30, 2020

The top 150 pitchers in college baseball, according to D1Baseball analytics

Reid Detmers an ace for Louisville
We hope that you’ve enjoyed checking out our breakdown of the preseason top-25 teams. To continue in our preparation for the 2020 college baseball season, we have also generated a computer version of top pitchers with a method used by most organizations to identify potential prospects: statistical analysis.

As scouts begin to build their draft list for 2020, the analytics department for each front office will send its area scouts a list of analytic follows. In many instances, the names on the analytics list will match those already on a scout’s list. In other instances, names on the analytic list may be new to a scout, prompting the scout to get out and take a look at the office’s recommendations.

We have approached the analytics process in similar fashion — to identify possible under the radar prospects. We have broken down pitching into three categories: Zone Control, Pitch Ability, and Durability. Zone Control (ZC) is how well the pitcher controls the strike zone with strikeouts, walks, wild pitches and hit by pitch. Pitch Ability (PA) refers to a pitcher’s ability to pitch using statistics like WHIP, FIP and OppSLG. Durability (DR) is largely based on innings pitched as college starting pitchers have shown greater success in professional baseball than college relievers.

Adjustments have been made to account for park effects of the most extreme hitter and pitcher friendly parks, as well as an adjustment for a team’s strength of schedule. Our analysis is based on 2019 spring season statistics only and does not consider how a pitcher fields his position or holds baserunners. Nor does it consider a pitcher’s athleticism, arm action, delivery, projection or any other in-person scouted qualities. It is simply a list to identify pitchers who have statistically performed in areas that are proven to correlate into professional baseball. Pitchers are graded from 0-100.

Scroll left to right for all grades.

rank pitcher school overall zone
control
pitchability durability
1 Reid Detmers Louisville 94.0 89.9 92.5 91.8
2 Mason Hickman Vanderbilt 92.5 87.4 92.7 84.7
3 Kumar Rocker Vanderbilt 91.7 84.7 91.4 86.3
4 Emerson Hancock Georgia 90.0 85.6 94.4 81.5
5 Tanner Burns Auburn 89.3 85.0 90.4 77.5
6 Asa Lacy Texas A&M 89.3 85.0 92.0 81.3
7 JT Ginn Mississippi St 89.0 85.2 93.0 80.4
8 Trenton Denholm UC Irvine 88.2 82.4 95.7 85.6
9 John Stankiewicz Fordham 87.7 85.3 94.2 82.6
10 Tyler Brown Vanderbilt 87.0 89.6 95.4 63.9
11 Landon Knack ETSU 86.8 83.0 91.3 85.3
12 CJ Van Eyk Florida St 86.8 83.5 88.2 86.7
13 Jeff Criswell Michigan 86.4 80.1 88.9 89.4
14 Jacob Key UIC 86.4 80.0 88.9 89.3
15 Jack Owen Auburn 86.3 81.5 90.4 72.5
16 Brian Van Belle Miami (FL) 86.2 80.3 88.4 84.6
17 Doug Nikhazy Ole Miss 86.2 79.8 87.1 81.9
18 Logan Allen FIU 86.1 87.5 90.3 79.6
19 Noah Cameron Central Arkansas 85.8 82.7 90.1 83.8
20 Zach Hester Samford 85.8 84.7 93.1 78.6
21 Stephen Hansen Iona 85.7 83.5 90.5 84.3
22 Collin Liberatore Indiana St. 85.6 78.3 89.9 87.6
23 Kade Mechals Grand Canyon 85.5 81.9 91.1 82.7
24 Walker Powell Southern Miss 85.5 80.3 89.2 86.0
25 Hayes Heinecke Wofford 85.4 82.7 91.2 81.3
26 Jake Kuchmaner East Carolina 85.3 79.5 90.3 80.5
27 Slade Cecconi Miami (FL) 85.2 83.5 88.6 78.1
28 Javin Drake Western Illinois 85.1 80.3 87.1 88.4
29 Jared Wetherbee Elon 84.9 84.4 90.1 79.4
30 Max Meyer Minnesota 84.9 84.4 92.6 76.1
31 Daniel Paret Stetson 84.7 80.0 89.0 84.3
32 Cameron Brown Central Michigan 84.7 78.3 89.3 85.9
33 Bryce Elder Texas 84.6 80.2 89.8 79.2
34 Seth Lonsway Ohio St. 84.6 80.4 88.6 83.9
35 Davis Sharpe Clemson 84.5 79.3 90.2 79.7
36 Mason Studstill FGCU 84.5 80.5 91.4 80.6
37 Cole Henry LSU 84.4 84.7 89.9 68.3
38 Tyler Olmstead South Dakota St 84.4 79.2 89.4 84.8
39 Tommy Mace Florida 84.4 75.9 83.7 82.7
40 Scott Randall Sacramento St 84.4 78.3 89.8 84.0
41 Micah Dallas Texas Tech 84.3 81.4 86.6 76.2
42 Chris Weber Texas A&M 84.3 83.7 88.9 71.3
43 Tyler Thornton Saint Mary’s/ASU 84.3 83.2 92.7 76.1
44 Bobby Miller Louisville 84.3 79.4 88.5 78.0
45 Luke Gesell UNCW 84.1 78.2 90.2 83.1
46 Jordan Wicks Kansas St 84.1 81.4 87.3 80.1
47 Brendan Beck Stanford 84.1 80.7 87.1 83.1
48 Bryce Jarvis Duke 84.0 80.9 86.6 76.3
49 Connor Noland Arkansas 84.0 79.2 87.8 76.9
50 Eric Miles Presbyterian 84.0 80.8 86.3 83.9
51 Adam Seminaris Long Beach St 83.9 77.8 88.6 84.4
52 Luke Taggart Incarnate Word 83.9 81.2 88.4 81.2
53 Hunter Wolfe Dayton 83.9 79.4 89.1 82.2
54 Max Loven North Dakota St 83.8 81.6 91.6 81.2
55 Logan Wiley Missouri St. 83.7 80.1 87.4 82.7
56 Griffan Smith Ohio St. 83.7 78.7 85.8 85.7
57 AJ Jones Jacksonville 83.7 79.5 89.8 80.9
58 Kyle Mora UCLA 83.7 84.7 92.8 67.1
59 Kyle Coleman Florida A&M 83.7 76.3 86.6 87.2
60 Chris Gonzalez Stetson 83.6 78.9 87.4 83.7
61 Alek Jacob Gonzaga 83.6 81.5 91.4 77.2
62 Landon Roupp UNCW 83.5 81.3 89.9 78.3
63 Nick Frasso Loyola Marymount 83.5 86.7 95.8 67.0
64 Garrett Crochet Tennessee 83.5 84.0 86.0 71.5
65 Joshua South Belmont 83.4 80.2 86.9 82.2
66 Rodney Boone UC Santa Barbara 83.4 81.1 90.2 78.0
67 Carlos Lomeli Saint Mary’s (CA) 83.3 78.5 89.5 81.1
68 Josh Agnew Loyola Marymount 83.3 78.6 89.5 80.8
69 Chase Walter Western Caro. 83.2 79.9 84.6 84.2
70 Alex Pham San Francisco 83.2 84.2 90.6 73.9
71 Noah Skirrow Liberty 83.1 82.9 89.2 76.4
72 Brett Kerry South Carolina 83.1 85.0 92.6 67.9
73 Charles King TCU 83.1 78.4 88.9 80.3
74 Pierson Ohl Grand Canyon 83.1 78.5 86.9 82.9
75 Jesse Bergin UCLA 83.1 82.6 88.0 72.2
76 Tanner Bibee Cal St. Fullerton 83.0 78.1 84.9 85.0
77 Ian Seymour Virginia Tech 82.9 82.7 87.5 73.8
78 John Baker Ball St. 82.9 82.4 91.2 74.1
79 Mat Clark Clemson 82.9 79.8 89.9 74.5
80 Paul Dickens Baylor 82.9 82.8 86.3 77.8
81 Justin Sorokowski VCU 82.9 82.3 90.7 74.7
82 Patrick Wicklander Arkansas 82.8 81.5 86.8 72.2
83 Brant Hurter Georgia Tech 82.7 84.4 93.3 63.9
84 Lael Lockhart Houston 82.7 78.1 87.7 79.4
85 Garrett Burhenn Ohio St. 82.6 76.9 87.0 82.9
86 Brett Standlee Oklahoma St 82.6 77.8 84.8 75.0
87 Nick Dombkowski Hartford 82.5 80.5 86.5 79.7
88 T.J. Stuart Manhattan 82.5 79.3 87.5 80.9
89 Levi Thomas Troy 82.5 80.9 87.3 78.4
90 Holden Powell UCLA 82.5 82.3 94.6 64.0
91 Austin Love North Carolina 82.4 79.4 90.9 72.1
92 Alex Pansini Marist 82.4 79.3 87.4 79.5
93 Austin Koehn UNC Greensboro 82.4 79.8 89.8 76.6
94 Levi Prater Oklahoma 82.3 80.3 87.5 78.1
95 Drake Nightengale South Alabama 82.3 81.5 90.3 74.1
96 Harry Rutkowski Rutgers 82.3 80.7 86.2 79.0
97 Will Dion McNeese 82.3 86.5 95.2 64.2
98 Thomas Girard Duke 82.2 84.2 91.8 62.8
99 Justin Sterner BYU 82.2 81.2 90.9 73.7
100 Gunnar Hoglund Ole Miss 82.2 79.1 85.2 72.9
101 Austin Miller Ole Miss 82.2 81.3 89.4 66.5
102 Peyton Wigginton Middle Tenn. 82.2 80.4 84.9 80.3
103 Jordan DiValerio Saint Joseph’s 82.2 81.8 89.2 74.7
104 Chance Hroch New Mexico St 82.2 77.5 87.6 80.5
105 David Dunlavey Furman/Mississippi St 82.1 77.4 86.2 81.9
106 Wade Strain William & Mary 82.1 77.5 89.0 79.0
107 Tommy Sheehan Notre Dame 82.0 76.7 84.7 83.6
108 Nikelle Galatas Jackson St. 82.0 76.4 88.4 89.6
109 Chandler Jozwiak Texas A&M 82.0 83.8 84.9 68.7
110 Alex Stiegler Yale 82.0 82.1 86.9 76.1
111 Ryan Miller N.C. Central 82.0 83.4 89.7 74.0
112 Chris McMahon Miami (FL) 82.0 82.3 89.4 69.0
113 Cody Greenhill Auburn 82.0 77.0 87.2 68.0
114 Kyle Hurt Southern California 82.0 78.6 86.1 75.6
115 Chris Turpin New Orleans 82.0 78.4 86.2 80.4
116 Nic McCay South Dakota St 81.9 80.7 87.6 77.7
117 Grant Judkins Iowa 81.9 77.6 88.2 78.9
118 Ryan Cyr Kansas 81.9 76.1 82.9 85.7
119 Matt Mikulski Fordham 81.9 78.3 87.2 79.2
120 Garret Price Liberty 81.9 81.8 91.7 71.2
121 Eli Morse Portland 81.8 79.9 86.6 78.0
122 Landon Mitchell Gardner-Webb 81.8 78.1 86.7 79.7
123 Tyler Santana Jacksonville 81.8 76.3 85.5 82.5
124 Easton Walker BYU 81.8 77.8 90.2 76.3
125 Parker Brahms Sacramento St 81.8 81.1 86.6 76.6
126 Trent Johnson Purdue 81.7 83.6 91.8 68.9
127 Redmond Walsh Tennessee 81.7 83.3 90.8 62.3
128 Jack Leftwich Florida 81.7 80.6 83.7 70.4
129 Clay Aguliar Houston 81.7 81.7 88.1 72.3
130 Jon Tieman Valparaiso 81.7 77.1 84.8 82.1
131 Robbie Peto Stetson 81.6 80.8 87.2 75.9
132 Jimmy Kingsbury Villanova 81.6 75.9 87.6 80.3
133 Richard Fitts Auburn 81.6 78.2 82.4 70.4
134 Eric Walker LSU 81.6 75.9 83.9 74.8
135 David Moffat UT Arlington 81.6 77.4 87.6 78.7
136 Jordan Marks USC Upstate 81.5 78.9 86.8 78.0
137 Slater Foust UTSA 81.5 75.2 88.5 80.0
138 Robert Ahlstrom Oregon 81.5 79.7 87.2 75.0
139 Liam Dvorak Holy Cross 81.5 80.2 87.1 76.2
140 Michael Johnson N.C. A&T 81.5 77.3 87.6 78.6
141 Collin Sullivan South Fla. 81.4 76.8 88.0 78.6
142 Connor Schultz Butler 81.4 81.3 91.3 77.1
143 Josh Price Col. of Charleston 81.4 76.4 88.5 78.4
144 Tyler Mattison Bryant 81.4 77.5 87.4 78.3
145 Reid Johnston NC State 81.3 78.3 87.2 77.0
146 Zach Pettway UCLA 81.3 80.4 86.8 70.4
147 Ethan Smith Vanderbilt 81.3 83.6 91.9 57.1
148 Luke Smith Louisville 81.2 76.8 87.5 72.7
149 Nick Swiney NC State 81.2 86.2 87.7 67.6
150 Christian Roa Texas A&M 81.2 82.1 88.3 63.8

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