We’re now just a few weeks away from Selection Monday, and as you might expect, teams across the country are jockeying for position.
Don’t see your team as a top eight or top 16 seed? Don’t fret just yet. Things can change on a whim, as you’ll notice in this week’s batch of our Field of 64 postseason projections.
There are plenty of changes to report in this week’s projections.
In the race for those coveted top eight seeds, we have three new teams in the top eight. Virginia Tech, Auburn, and Texas A&M replace Southern Miss, TCU, and Georgia. The Golden Eagles dropped two of three on the road to UAB, and suddenly their metrics are lacking meat on the bone. USM is far from out of the mix for a top eight but isn’t one of ours this week. TCU is down to 30 in the RPI and its pathway to a top eight is difficult. Getting back into the Top 16 discussion is a possibility, however. As for Georgia, the Bulldogs are sitting pretty with a 12-9 RPI, but have head-to-head series losses to Texas A&M and LSU, and still must head to Knoxville to face Tennessee.
As for the three new teams, Auburn and Texas A&M continue to make sizable gains in the RPI department and both are sizzling hot in the SEC, while Virginia Tech is up to five in the RPI with recent series wins over Miami and Virginia, among others.
In terms of other Top 16 hosts, Texas, Stanford and Georgia Southern are out this week, while TCU is out as well. Those four teams are replaced by Texas A&M, Louisville, Oregon, and LSU. The Cardinals are up to 16 in the RPI with 12 wins vs. RPI Top 50 and a solid 14-7 mark in the ACC, Oregon is 22 in the RPI but is on thin ice this week and LSU is up to 15 in the RPI with a 12-9 mark in the SEC along with 11 wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams.
The final few host spots are very much up for grabs these final few weeks. Florida State and Georgia Tech have iffy conference records but clearly have robust resumes otherwise, TCU and Texas could still make moves in the Big 12, Stanford has the potential to finish strong and be in RPI position to host, Georgia Southern is right there in the mix with a lofty RPI and a road series win over league-leading Texas State and NC State is in good shape RPI wise (24) with a favorable schedule to end the regular season.
As for the field as a whole, there were only two total changes: Iowa and Alabama exited this week’s field while Louisiana Tech and Dallas Baptist rounded out the at-large bids. Tech picked up a huge series win over Old Dominion on the road last weekend, while the Patriots, despite an incredibly high RPI, are slotted in as an at-large team with some distance created between them and league-leading Evansville.
Here are the latest projections, assembled by our Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mark Etheridge.
(Editor's note: These were first published on d1baseball.com on May 4)
Last four in:
61. San Diego
62. Louisiana Tech
First four out:
67. Coastal Carolina
|1 Tennessee* (1)||1 Gonzaga* (16)|
|4 Coppin State*||4 North Dakota State*|
|2 Georgia Tech||2 UCLA|
|3 Connecticut*||3 Pennsylvania|
|1 Oregon State* (2)||1 LSU (15)|
|4 Central Connecticut*||4 McNeese*|
|2 Grand Canyon*||2 Texas|
|3 Wake Forest||3 Louisiana Tech|
|1 Virginia Tech (3)||1 Virginia (14)|
|4 Fairfield*||4 Davidson*|
|2 Wofford*||2 Maryland*|
|3 West Virginia||3 Liberty*|
|1 Oklahoma State* (4)||1 Oregon (13)|
|4 Army*||4 UNLV*|
|2 Texas State*||2 UC Santa Barbara*|
|3 San Diego||3 Vanderbilt|
|1 Miami* (5)||1 Louisville (12)|
|4 Maine*||4 Ball State*|
|2 Texas Tech||2 Arizona|
|3 Florida||3 East Carolina*|
|1 Auburn (6)||1 Georgia (11)|
|4 Alabama State*||4 College of Charleston*|
|2 Florida State||2 Georgia Southern|
|3 Kennesaw State||3 Mercer|
|1 Texas A&M (7)||1 Southern Miss* (10)|
|4 Wright State*||4 Campbell*|
|2 TCU||2 NC State|
|3 Pittsburgh||3 Louisiana|
|1 Notre Dame (8)||1 Arkansas (9)|
|4 Evansville*||4 Southeast Missouri State*|
|2 Stanford||2 Dallas Baptist|
|3 Rutgers||3 Oklahoma|