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Daniel Wilco | | March 19, 2019

Here's how your March Madness bracket will do if you only pick the better-seeded team

Throwback Thursday: 2011-12 Kentucky

Filling out a March Madness bracket can be challenging. There are dozens of statistics to research, 68 teams to examine, and only a few days to do it.

But what if there were an easier way to fill out your bracket? One that required no research, no planning, no guesswork.

What if you picked a bracket where the better seed won every game?

Turns out, you’d do a whole lot better than the average bracket.

We looked at data from our Bracket Challenge Game from 2011, and compared a bracket that picked using the overall seed rankings against the average brackets that year. Here’s how they fared:

Year Seed-based bracket score Average user score Difference % improvement
2011 57 53.1 +3.9 +7.3%
2012 120 83 +37 +44.6%
2013 112 70 +42 +60%
2014 68 60.1 +7.9 +13.1%
2015 89 83.3 +5.7 +6.8%
2016 87 68.2 +18.8 +27.6%
2017 82 65.7 +16.3 +24.8%
2018 81 57 +24 +42.1%

Yeah, for the most part, it's not even close: Seed-based brackets perform much better than average. On average, a bracket that picks based solely on the overall seed ranking will net 19.5 points more than the average bracket (and perform 28.8 percent better). Since each round is worth 32 points, that’s the equivalent of two correct Final Four picks and an Elite Eight winner.

Of course, two of these years stand out and somewhat skew the numbers.

Those would be 2012 and 2013, when the No. 1 overall seed won the championship. Those two (Kentucky in 2012, and Louisville in 2013*) are the only two top overall seeds to play in or win the title in the past 10 years.

There is a lesson to be found here for more involved bracket pickers: First round upsets are fun on paper, but knocking off top-seeded teams early and picking Cinderellas to make deep runs is a dangerous tactic.

Here's how the seed-based brackets correct picks break down by round:

Year First rd Second rd Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four Champ
2011 25 10 3 0 0 0
2012 22 11 5 1 1 1
2013 22 11 3 1 1 1
2014 24 10 4 1 0 0
2015 27 9 5 3 0 0
2016 19 10 6 1 1 0
2017 26 12 4 2 0 0
2018 23 7 3 2 1 0
Average 23.5 10.0 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.3
TOTAL POSSIBLE 32 16 8 4 2 1

You can see that the two brackets that did the best — 2012 and 2013 — got fewer first-round picks correct than all but one year.

That's a pretty good indication that it's not worth stressing over trying to get the first couple rounds perfect — a nearly impossible task. The early missed picks can turn out to be pretty inconsequential if you get the later rounds right. In general, it’s better to miss a major upset than to pick one, be wrong, and have the other team go on another two or three rounds – or even worse, to the Final Four.

The 1 seeds are literally twice as likely to make the Final Four as any other team, and infinitely more likely to make it than either of their first two opponents, the 16 and 9 seeds. The 16 seed has only ever won one game (UMBC in 2018), and the 9 seed has only ever made one Final Four (Wichita State in 2013).

But back to the main strategy of picking by seed.

We’ve established that you’ll do much better than the average user. But that doesn’t mean this is necessarily a good strategy to win your pool. For the five years we have full data for — 2014-2018 — the seed-based brackets placed in the 72nd percentile on average.

Year Score Percentile
2014 65 68th
2015 83 58th
2016 87 86th
2017 79 69th
2018 81 80th

The 2016 seed-based bracket does the best comparatively, placing in the 86th percentile, despite not picking the champion correctly.

Moral of the story: If you’re tired of being embarrassed in your pool by your 2-year-old nephew who literally can’t read a bracket, play it safe and try picking the better-seeded team this year. If nothing less than first place will do, add a little more analysis to your process.

*NOTE: Louisville’s participation in the 2013 Division I men’s basketball championship was later vacated by the Committee on Infractions.

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