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Daniel Wilco | NCAA.com | March 17, 2019

The entire March Madness field of 68 predicted on Selection Sunday

Selection committee update: List of teams in consideration has dropped from 30 to 14 entering Saturday

It’s officially Selection Sunday, and even though there are just a few hours until the full field of 68 is announced for real, there’s still plenty that’s up in the air.

Our own NCAA.com basketball analyst Andy Katz has traveled the country all season long. He's watched games. He's talked to the best players and coaches. And through it all he's sifted through the mountain of information he's collected to put together full bracket predictions for the March Madness field.

All of that built up to this, the final bracket prediction of the 2019 season.

Before we break down the predicted field, let’s take a look at the bracket itself. (Tap or click here to open the bracket in a new window or tab).

Andy Katz's NCAA tournament bracket prediction March 17

And here’s that bracket in table form:

(Teams that have won their conference tournament and clinched an automatic bid to the tournament are bolded. Their seed still won't be decided until Sunday, but they are guaranteed a spot in the tournament.)

  East West South Midwest
1 Duke Gonzaga Virginia North Carolina
16 (Iona/NC Central) Prairie View Gardner-Webb (FDU/N. Dakota St.
         
8 Iowa Syracuse Baylor Seton Hall
9 Utah St. Minnesota Ole Miss Washington
         
5 Buffalo Auburn Villanova Wisconsin
12 Liberty New Mexico St. Murray St. St. Mary's
         
4 Kansas Virginia Tech Purdue Kansas St.
13 Vermont UC-Irvine Old Dominion Northeastern
         
6 Marquette Iowa St. Cincinnati Maryland
11 (Temple/Oklahoma) Oregon Florida (TCU/St. John's)
         
3 LSU Florida St. Texas Tech Houston
14 *Harvard/Yale *SLU/St. Bonaventure Northern Kentucky *Georgia St./UT Arlington
         
7 Louisville Mississippi St. Nevada Wofford
10 Arizona St. UCF Ohio St. VCU
         
2 Michigan Michigan St. Kentucky Tennessee
15 Abilene Christian Colgate Montana Bradley

*Represents possible automatic bids from the same conference

North Carolina is a 1 seed for the first time all year

The Tar Heels couldn’t complete the three-peat against Duke, falling to the Blue Devils 74-73 in the ACC tournament semifinals, but few teams finished out the season as hot as North Carolina. In the final 17 games, UNC lost just twice — 69-61 against Virginia, and by one point to Duke in a game that could have gone either way. In the process, they picked up six wins against ranked teams, including three in the top 10. That performance didn’t go unnoticed by Katz, who bumped North Carolina up to the top line of his bracket prediction for the first time all season. If it’s any consolation to Tar Heel fans, the three years UNC has won a national championship under Roy Williams, the Tar Heels have lost in the ACC tournament semifinals. 

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Joining UNC as a 1 seed are Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga. The Blue Devils beat Florida State for the ACC crown, while Virginia and Gonzaga each finished the year with just three losses.

Seton Hall and Iowa State show off in conference tournaments

The Pirates lost the Big East championship in heartbreaking fashion, missing a last-second potential game-winner to fall to Villanova 74-72. But what a performance by Seton Hall to finish the regular season. In a span of five games, the Pirates knocked off Georgetown, Marquette twice, beat Villanova once, and were inches from pulling it off a second time. That stretch gave Katz good reason to bump Seton Hall from a 10 to an 8 seed. What’s more, few players in the country have been as hot as Myles Powell, who is averaging 27.6 points over the last seven games. The junior guard scored 30 or more eight times this season, and fewer than 15 just three times. That type of star can take a team far in the tournament.

What a way to bounce back for Iowa State. The Cyclones closed the regular season by losing five of their final six games, including the last three in a row. And then they beat Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas in three straight days to take the Big 12 tournament title. Iowa State now has multiple wins over both Kansas and Kansas State, and split games with Texas Tech. That’s a pretty strong resume, and was enough for Katz to move them from an 8 to a 6 seed in his final prediction. 

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VCU and UCF suffer disappointing losses

VCU was looking as hot as ever coming into the A-10 tournament. The Rams were in first place in the conference, 25-6 on the year, and had just won 12 straight. Then, they lost 75-70 in the A-10 quarterfinals to eight-seeded Rhode Island, which finished the year 18-15. To be fair, VCU played most of the game without star guard Marcus Evans, who was injured in the first half. But that alone doesn’t excuse the loss, which prompted Katz to drop the Rams from a 7 to a 10 seed. 

UCF had about as strong of a final stretch as it could hope for, knocking off No. 8 Houston on the road, then beating No. 20 Cincinnati before losing a close one at Temple. The Knights finished the season as the four-seed in the AAC, earning a first-round bye. And then they got demolished by Memphis, 79-55. Not a good look heading into Selection Sunday. As a result, Katz moved UCF from an 8 seed to a 10.

Andy Katz's field of 68

Here is Katz’s full seed list in order. Beneath it, you’ll find a list of all 68 teams in Katz's latest field, with how their seeding has changed since the last prediction:

Overall seed Team Seed AQ?
1 Duke 1 *AQ
2 Virginia 1  
3 North Carolina 1  
4 Gonzaga 1  
5 Michigan State 2 AQ
6 Tennessee 2 AQ
7 Kentucky 2  
8 Michigan 2  
9 Houston 3 AQ
10 Texas Tech 3  
11 Florida State 3  
12 LSU 3  
13 Purdue 4  
14 Kansas 4  
15 Kansas State 4  
16 Virginia Tech 4  
17 Wisconsin 5  
18 Villanova 5 *AQ
19 Buffalo 5 *AQ
20 Auburn 5  
21 Cincinnati 6  
22 Iowa State 6 *AQ
23 Marquette 6  
24 Maryland 6  
25 Mississippi State 7  
26 Nevada 7  
27 Louisville 7  
28 Wofford 7 *AQ
29 Seton Hall 8  
30 Syracuse 8  
31 Iowa 8  
32 Baylor 8  
33 Washington 9  
34 Utah State 9 *AQ
35 Minnesota 9  
36 Mississippi 9  
37 VCU 10  
38 Arizona State 10  
39 UCF 10  
40 Ohio State 10  
41 Florida 11  
42 Temple 11  
43 Oklahoma 11  
44 TCU 11  
45 St. John's 11  
46 Oregon 11 *AQ
47 St. Mary's (CA) 12 *AQ
48 New Mexico State 12 *AQ
49 Murray State 12 *AQ
50 Liberty 12 *AQ
51 UC-Irvine 13 *AQ
52 Vermont 13 *AQ
53 Northeastern 13 *AQ
54 Old Dominion 13 *AQ
55 Harvard/Yale 14 AQ
56 SLU/St. Bonaventure 14 AQ
57 Northern Kentucky 14 *AQ
58 Georgia State/UT Arlington 14 AQ
59 Montana 15 *AQ
60 Colgate 15 *AQ
61 Bradley 15 *AQ
62 Abilene Christian 15 *AQ
63 Gardner-Webb 16 *AQ
64 Prairie View 16 *AQ
65 Fairleigh Dickinson 16 *AQ
66 North Dakota State 16 *AQ
67 Iona 16 *AQ
68 North Carolina Central 16 *AQ

First four out: Belmont, Texas, Indiana, NC State

Bracket movement

Here is how every team's seed has changed since Katz's last prediction:

Overall seed Team Bracket 11 seed Bracket 10 seed Movement
1 Duke 1 1 0
2 Virginia 1 1 0
3 North Carolina 1 2 +1
4 Gonzaga 1 1 0
5 Michigan State 2 2 0
6 Tennessee 2 2 0
7 Kentucky 2 1 -1
8 Michigan 2 3 +1
9 Houston 3 3 0
10 Texas Tech 3 3 0
11 Florida State 3 4 +1
12 LSU 3 2 -1
13 Purdue 4 3 -1
14 Kansas 4 4 0
15 Kansas State 4 4 0
16 Virginia Tech 4 4 0
17 Wisconsin 5 5 0
18 Villanova 5 6 +1
19 Buffalo 5 5 0
20 Auburn 5 6 +1
21 Cincinnati 6 6 0
22 Iowa State 6 8 +2
23 Marquette 6 6 0
24 Maryland 6 5 -1
25 Mississippi State 7 7 0
26 Nevada 7 5 -2
27 Louisville 7 8 +1
28 Wofford 7 7 0
29 Seton Hall 8 10 +2
30 Syracuse 8 8 0
31 Iowa 8 9 +1
32 Baylor 8 7 -1
33 Washington 9 9 0
34 Utah State 9 10 +1
35 Minnesota 9 10 +1
36 Ole Miss 9 9 0
37 VCU 10 7 -3
38 Arizona State 10 10 0
39 UCF 10 8 -2
40 Ohio State 10 12 +2
41 Florida 11 12 +1
42 Temple 11 9 -2
43 Oklahoma 11 11 0
44 TCU 11 11 0
45 St. John's 11 11 0
46 Oregon 11 N/A N/A
47 St. Mary's (CA) 12 N/A N/A
48 New Mexico State 12 12 0
49 Murray State 12 12 0
50 Liberty 12 13 +1
51 UC-Irvine 13 N/A N/A
52 Vermont 13 13 0
53 Northeastern 13 N/A N/A
54 Old Dominion 13 14 +1
55 Harvard/Yale 14 N/A N/A
56 SLU/St. Bonaventure 14 N/A N/A
57 Northern Kentucky 14 N/A N/A
58 Georgia State/UT Arlington 14 14 0
59 Montana 15 14 -1
60 Colgate 15 15 0
61 Bradley 15 15 0
62 Abilene Christian 15 N/A N/A
63 Gardner-Webb 16 16 0
64 Prairie View 16 16 0
65 Fairleigh Dickinson 16 N/A N/A
66 North Dakota State 16 N/A N/A
67 Iona 16 16 0
68 North Carolina Central 16 N/A N/A

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