Virginia has received lots of (warranted) praise for its defense. Sports Reference’s Defensive Simple Rating System, which ranks teams based on a combination of average point differential and strength of schedule, has the Cavaliers as the best defense in the country.
If history tells us anything, that’s enough reason not to pick them to win the championship.
In the 34-year history of the modern NCAA tournament, no team that has finished with the top DSRS has ever reached the national championship game, and only one has ever been to the Final Four.
What’s more, 25 of the 34 either did not make the tournament, or lost in the first two rounds.
| NCAA tournament result | Count |
|---|---|
| DNP | 8 |
| Lost in First Round | 10 |
| Lost in Second Round | 7 |
| Lost in Sweet 16 | 6 |
| Lost in Elite Eight | 3 |
| Lost in Final Four | 1 |
On average, teams that finish as the No. 1 DSRS team and make the NCAA tournament win just 1.2 games per tournament, which translates to a loss in the second round.
To be fair, of the 33, few have been ranked as high overall as Virginia. The average seed is just under a 6, and only two others have been a one seed. But who were those two? Both Virginia, of course. In 2014 the 1-seed Cavaliers lost to 4-seed Michigan State 61-59 in the Sweet 16. In 2016, Virginia fell to 10-seed Syracuse 68-62 in the Elite Eight.
Here’s how every one of the past top-ranked defensive teams fared:
| Year | School | NCAAT Seed | NCAA touranment result | Conf | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | DSRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Illinois | 3 | Lost regional semifinal | Big Ten | 26-9 | 68.9 | 57.2 | 16.97 |
| 1986 | Illinois | 4 | Lost second round | Big Ten | 22-10 | 72.8 | 61.2 | 13.92 |
| 1987 | Notre Dame | 5 | Lost regional semifinal | Ind | 24-8 | 65.1 | 59.4 | 17.17 |
| 1988 | Colorado St. | DNP | DNP | WAC | 22-13 | 62.9 | 57.3 | 16.7 |
| 1988 | Ga. Southern | DNP | DNP | A-Sun | 24-7 | 63.9 | 55.6 | 16.7 |
| 1989 | Saint Mary's | 8 | Lost first round | WCAC | 25-5 | 76.1 | 57.6 | 18.64 |
| 1990 | Princeton | 13 | Lost first round | Ivy | 20-7 | 62.6 | 51 | 20.41 |
| 1991 | Princeton | 8 | Lost first round | Ivy | 24-3 | 62.4 | 48.9 | 24.34 |
| 1992 | Princeton | 11 | Lost first round | Ivy | 22-6 | 59 | 48.2 | 22.78 |
| 1993 | Cincinnati | 2 | Lost regional final | GMWC | 27-5 | 74.5 | 58.5 | 17.74 |
| 1994 | Temple | 4 | Lost second round | A-10 | 23-8 | 63.8 | 54.7 | 23.02 |
| 1995 | Temple | 10 | Lost first round | A-10 | 19-11 | 62.7 | 59.7 | 19.72 |
| 1996 | Temple | 7 | Lost second round | A-10 | 20-13 | 60 | 58.2 | 18.23 |
| 1997 | NC State | DNP | DNP | ACC | 17-15 | 59.8 | 54.7 | 19.77 |
| 1998 | S. Alabama | 12 | Lost first round | Sun Belt | 21-7 | 65 | 54.5 | 15.34 |
| 1999 | Wisconsin | 5 | Lost first round | Big Ten | 22-10 | 62.1 | 55.2 | 18.02 |
| 2000 | Wisconsin | 8 | Lost national semifinal | Big Ten | 22-14 | 59.9 | 55.8 | 19.95 |
| 2001 | Wisconsin | 6 | Lost first round | Big Ten | 18-11 | 59.4 | 56.6 | 20.14 |
| 2002 | S. Carolina | DNP | DNP | SEC | 22-15 | 68.3 | 61.6 | 15.16 |
| 2003 | Air Force | DNP | DNP | MWC | 12-16 | 57.3 | 57 | 14.87 |
| 2004 | Air Force | 11 | Lost first round | MWC | 22-7 | 59.9 | 50.9 | 18.54 |
| 2005 | Wash St. | DNP | DNP | Pac-10 | 12-16 | 55.9 | 56.9 | 18.26 |
| 2006 | Wash St. | DNP | DNP | Pac-10 | 12-16 | 55.9 | 56.9 | 18.26 |
| 2007 | Michigan St. | 9 | Lost second round | Big Ten | 23-12 | 65 | 57.2 | 15.3 |
| 2008 | Wisconsin | 3 | Lost regional semifinal | Big Ten | 31-5 | 67.3 | 54.4 | 16.76 |
| 2009 | Wash St. | DNP | DNP | Pac-10 | 17-16 | 59.2 | 55.4 | 17.51 |
| 2010 | Wisconsin | 4 | Lost second round | Big Ten | 24-9 | 67.1 | 56.9 | 15.54 |
| 2011 | Wisconsin | 4 | Lost regional semifinal | Big Ten | 25-9 | 67.9 | 58.6 | 14.52 |
| 2012 | Wisconsin | 4 | Lost regional semifinal | Big Ten | 26-10 | 64 | 53.2 | 18.47 |
| 2013 | Florida | 3 | Lost regional final | SEC | 29-8 | 71.4 | 54.4 | 15.95 |
| 2014 | Virginia | 1 | Lost regional semifinal | ACC | 30-7 | 66.2 | 55.7 | 17.76 |
| 2015 | Virginia | 2 | Lost second round | ACC | 30-4 | 65.4 | 51.5 | 19.6 |
| 2016 | Virginia | 1 | Lost regional final | ACC | 29-8 | 71 | 60.1 | 17.92 |
| 2017 | Virginia | 5 | Lost second round | ACC | 23-11 | 66.1 | 56.4 | 22.12 |
| 2018 | Virginia | 1 | Lost first round | ACC | 31-2 | 67.5 | 53.4 | 25.02 |
| 2019 | Virginia | 1 | ? | ACC | 29-3 | 71.8 | 55.1 | 21.40 |
Okay, so it's pretty clear that the top-ranked DSRS teams don't fare well as a whole in the NCAA tournament. But that doesn't necessarily mean that national champions aren't good defensive teams.
So, how exactly did past national champions rank in DSRS?
Not bad, but not great either. The average ranking is 38.2, and only six ranked inside the top 10.
North Carolina in 2009 proved as well as anyone that defense doesn't win championships (by itself). The Tar Heels allowed 72 points per game that season, but still outscored their opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game. Their DSRS was ranked 132 — the lowest ever for a champion.
Here's how all past champions ranked:
| Year | Team | DSRS | DSRS Rank | PPG | OPPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Villanova | 8.84 | 27 | 86.6 | 70.2 |
| 2017 | North Carolina | 7.91 | 47 | 84.4 | 70.6 |
| 2016 | Villanova | 14.17 | 4 | 78 | 63.6 |
| 2015 | Duke | 7.69 | 33 | 79.3 | 64.2 |
| 2014 | Connecticut | 11.93 | 11 | 71.8 | 63.2 |
| 2013 | Louisville | 12.04 | 9 | 74.5 | 58.8 |
| 2012 | Kentucky | 10.75 | 11 | 77.4 | 60.6 |
| 2011 | Connecticut | 8.72 | 26 | 72.4 | 64.9 |
| 2010 | Duke | 12.04 | 6 | 77 | 61 |
| 2009 | North Carolina | 1.6 | 132 | 89.8 | 72 |
| 2008 | Kansas | 11.99 | 5 | 80.5 | 61.5 |
| 2007 | Florida | 10.15 | 20 | 79.8 | 62.6 |
| 2006 | Florida | 9.8 | 16 | 76.2 | 63.1 |
| 2005 | North Carolina | 4.9 | 70 | 88 | 70.3 |
| 2004 | Connecticut | 8.47 | 30 | 78.8 | 63.9 |
| 2003 | Syracuse | 4.75 | 68 | 79.6 | 69.6 |
| 2002 | Maryland | 5.3 | 61 | 85 | 70.9 |
| 2001 | Duke | 7.72 | 39 | 90.7 | 70.5 |
| 2000 | Michigan State | 14.97 | 3 | 74.1 | 58.9 |
| 1999 | Connecticut | 13.12 | 9 | 77.3 | 61.3 |
| 1998 | Kentucky | 9.53 | 19 | 80.1 | 67 |
| 1997 | Arizona | 4.01 | 89 | 83.9 | 73.3 |
| 1996 | Kentucky | 7.54 | 44 | 91.4 | 69.4 |
| 1995 | UCLA | 7.28 | 47 | 87.5 | 73.9 |
| 1994 | Arkansas | 3.71 | 93 | 93.4 | 75.6 |
| 1993 | North Carolina | 11.83 | 13 | 86.1 | 68.3 |
| 1992 | Duke | 6.52 | 63 | 88 | 72.6 |
| 1991 | Duke | 9.49 | 30 | 87.7 | 73.4 |
| 1990 | UNLV | 3.44 | 97 | 93.5 | 78.5 |
| 1989 | Michigan | 7.79 | 50 | 91.7 | 74.8 |
| 1988 | Kansas | 13.17 | 11 | 75.3 | 67.9 |
| 1987 | Indiana | 6.81 | 50 | 82.5 | 70.9 |
| 1986 | Louisville | 7.61 | 33 | 79.4 | 69.1 |
| 1985 | Villanova | 8.95 | 21 | 68.7 | 63.9 |
