We're practically guaranteed a handful of upsets through the Round of 64, but we didn't see too many on the first day. Lower-ranked seeds were 14-2 through the first 16 games of the first round.

How did that line up with how our Bracket Challenge Game users picked? 

View the interactive bracket | Print the bracket

Pick (%) Result
Notre Dame (84.65%)✔️ (5) Notre Dame 60, (12) Princeton 58
Virginia (74.54%)✔️ (5) Virginia 76, (12) UNCW 71
Butler (89.93%)✔️ (4) Butler 76, (13) Winthrop 64
Gonzaga (97.27%)✔️ (1) Gonzaga 66, (16) South Dakota St. 46
West Virginia (87.50%)✔️ (4) West Virginia 86, (13) Bucknell 80
Florida (82.69%)✔️ (4) Florida 80, (13) ETSU 65
Minnesota (56.76%)✖️ (12) MTSU 81, (5) Minnesota 72
Northwestern (55.66%)✔️ (8) Northwestern 68, (9) Vanderbilt 66
Maryland (54.68%)✖️ (11) Xavier 76, (6) Maryland 65
Villanova (98.21%)✔️ (1) Villanova 76, (16) Mt. St. Mary's 56
St. Mary's (53.88%)✔️ (7) St. Mary's 85, (10) VCU 77
Purdue (85.19%)✔️ (4) Purdue 80, (13) Vermont 70
Florida State (79.92%)✔️ (3) Florida State 86, (14) FGCU 80
Wisconsin (66.44%)✔️ (8) Wisconsin 84, (9) Virginia Tech 74
Iowa State (76.73%)✔️ (5) Iowa State 84, (12) Nevada 73
Arizona (96.68%)✔️ (2) Arizona 100, (15) North Dakota 82

There you have it. A bracket that picked just based on our averages would have gone 14-2, thanks to all lower seeds being favored. But two of the most picked upsets — MTSU over Minnesota (picked in 43.24 percent of brackets) and Xavier over Maryland (45.32 percent) — did actually go down.

Here's how often players picked upsets for the 9-16 seeds and a list of the top upsets picked:

Seed Average Percentage Top Upset Percentage
9 44.39% Michigan State over (8) Miami✔️ 53.48%
10 48.75% Wichita State over (7) Dayton✔️ 66.29%
11 32.67% Xavier over (6) Maryland✔️ 45.32%
12 26.83% MTSU over (5) Minnesota✔️ 43.24%
13 13.67% ETSU over (4) Florida✖️ 17.31%
14 10.06% FGCU over (3) Florida State✖️ 20.08%
15 3.15% Jacksonville State over (2) Louisville✖️ 3.70%
16 2.05% S. Dakota St. over (1) Gonzaga✖️ 2.73%

(The average is for four games involving the seeds, one seed per region)

Wichita State, which finished 30-4 (17-1, MVC) was the favorite upset, picked to beat 7 seed Dayton in a whopping 66.29 percent of brackets -- though 10 seeds have won just 39.1 percent of games since 1985.

In another 7-10 game, higher-seeded Marquette was also favored to win by 56.80 percent of all brackets, and further down the bracket, just over 20 percent picked Florida Gulf Coast to take down 3 seed Florida State, though the Seminoles had no problem in Dunk City, winning 86-80.

One of Friday's most popular upsets was 11-seed Rhode Island over 6-seed Creighton. Just over 33 percent of all users picked the Rams to knock off the Bluejays.

Over the past six years, the most-picked upset among the 10-15 seeds is, unsurprisingly, the 10 seed, which was picked to beat a 7 seed in 39.5 percent of all brackets. That prediction was pretty spot on, just 0.4 percent off of the actual rate the upsets occur.

Here's the full list of every seed's first-round win percentage compared to how many of our bracket challenge players picked that seed to win from 2011-2016:

RELATED: How often we pick NCAA tournament upsets

SEED FIRST ROUND WIN PCT FIRST ROUND PICK PCT DIFFERENCE
1 100.0% 98.5% 1.5%
2 93.8% 97.4% -3.6%
3 83.6% 93.6% -10.0%
4 79.7% 89.0% -9.3%
5 64.1% 77.1% -13.0%
6 64.1% 70.0% -5.9
7 60.9% 60.5% 0.4%
8 50.0% 52.0% -2.0%
9 50.0% 48.0% 2.0%
10 39.1% 39.5% -0.4%
11 35.9% 30.0% 5.9%
12 35.9% 22.9% 13.0%
13 25.5% 11.0% 9.3%
14 16.4% 6.4% 10%
15 6.3% 2.6% 3.6%
16 0.0% 1.51% -1.5

Daniel Wilco has worked at the AJC, Sports Illustrated, and SEC Country. His writing has also appeared on SI.com, Men’s Health, and The Cauldron.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.