The preseason AP Top 25 poll for the 2018-19 college basketball season will be unveiled Monday, October 22. After the annual cycle of roster turnover and coaching changes in the offseason, along with the unpredictable nature of March Madness, are there any big-picture takeaways we can glean from the poll?
While it’s not a perfect predictor, the preseason AP poll is a fairly accurate and consistent barometer for which teams have realistic national title aspirations.
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We analyzed the last 25 college basketball seasons and found that just 16 teams made the Final Four in the last quarter century after not being ranked in the preseason AP poll. That means roughly two teams ranked outside the top 25 will advance to the final weekend of the season every three years, on average.
Here are some of the major takeaways from our findings:
- The preseason No. 1 team has made the Final Four 11 times in the last 25 seasons
- 36 teams ranked in the top four in the preseason have made the Final Four
- 2008 was arguably the most accurate preseason AP poll in history when No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Memphis and No. 4 Kansas – all of whom earned No. 1 seeds – made the Final Four
- The AP polls in 2001 (No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 5 Maryland) and 2007 (No. 1 Florida, No. 6 UCLA, No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Georgetown) also proved to be great indicators of the best teams in the country
- 2006 was the most unpredictable year since 1994 with three teams that started the year outside the preseason Top 25 – Florida, George Mason and LSU – along with preseason No. 19 UCLA advancing to the Final Four
- In 13 of the 25 seasons, all four Final Four teams were ranked in the preseason
- In 23 of the 25 seasons, at least two teams in the preseason top 10 made the Final Four
- The national champion has been ranked in the preseason 22 times in the last 25 years; 19 times in the top 10; 14 times in the top 5
- The average preseason ranking of the national champion in the last 25 years is 8.2 (we assigned a preseason rank value of 30 for teams that were unranked to start the season)
- Syracuse has made the Final Four three times in the last 25 years after starting the season unranked in the AP Top 25
Here’s the full breakdown of the teams that made the Final Four in each of the last 25 seasons, along with their preseason rank.
| Year | Team | Team | Team | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | No. 4 Kansas | No. 6 Villanova | NR Loyola Chicago | NR Michigan |
| 2017 | No. 5 Oregon | No. 6 North Carolina | No. 14 Gonzaga | NR South Carolina |
| 2016 | No. 1 North Carolina | No. 8 Oklahoma | No. 11 Villanova | NR Syracuse |
| 2015 | No. 1 Kentucky | No. 3 Wisconsin | No. 4 Duke | No. 18 Michigan State |
| 2014 | No. 1 Kentucky | No. 10 Florida | No. 18 Connecticut | No. 20 Wisconsin |
| 2013 | No. 2 Louisville | No. 5 Michigan | No. 9 Syracuse | NR Wichita State |
| 2012 | No. 2 Kentucky | No. 3 Ohio State | No. 9 Louisville | No. 13 Kansas |
| 2011 | No. 11 Kentucky | No. 17 Butler | NR Connecticut | NR VCU |
| 2010 | No. 2 Michigan State | No. 8 West Virginia | No. 9 Duke | No. 11 Butler |
| 2009 | No. 1 North Carolina | No. 2 Connecticut | No. 6 Michigan State | No. 23 Villanova |
| 2008 | No. 1 North Carolina | No. 2 UCLA | No. 3 Memphis | No. 4 Kansas |
| 2007 | No. 1 Florida | No. 6 UCLA | No. 7 Ohio State | No. 8 Georgetown |
| 2006 | No. 19 UCLA | NR Florida | NR George Mason | NR LSU |
| 2005 | No. 4 North Carolina | No. 5 Illinois | No. 13 Michigan State | No. 14 Louisville |
| 2004 | No. 1 Connecticut | No. 2 Duke | No. 25 Oklahoma State | NR Georgia Tech |
| 2003 | No. 2 Kansas | No. 4 Texas | No. 18 Marquette | NR Syracuse |
| 2002 | No. 2 Maryland | No. 7 Kansas | No. 22 Indiana | No. 25 Oklahoma |
| 2001 | No. 1 Arizona | No. 2 Duke | No. 3 Michigan State | No. 5 Maryland |
| 2000 | No. 3 Michigan State | No. 6 North Carolina | No. 8 Florida | R Wisconsin |
| 1999 | No. 1 Duke | No. 2 Connecticut | No. 5 Michigan State | NR Ohio State |
| 1998 | No. 4 North Carolina | No. 8 Kentucky | No. 14 Stanford | No. 16 Utah |
| 1997 | No. 3 Kentucky | No. 8 North Carolina | No. 19 Arizona | No. 22 Minnesota |
| 1996 | No. 1 Kentucky | No. 7 UMass | No. 9 Mississippi State | NR Syracuse |
| 1995 | No. 1 Arkansas | No. 2 North Carolina | No. 6 UCLA | No. 21 Oklahoma State |
| 1994 | No. 3 Arkansas | No. 4 Duke | No. 18 Arizona | NR Florida |
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