The 7-10 matchup is always one of the toughest picks on the NCAA tournament bracket. Sure, a 10 beating a 7 is technically an upset. But it happens so often that it's rarely a surprise when it does.
Here's everything you need to know about 10 seeds vs. 7 seeds in March Madness.
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History of 10 vs. 7 seeds in March Madness
Here are all of the times 10 seeds have beaten 7 seeds in the past decade:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Butler def. Arkansas | 79-62 |
| 2017 | Wichita State def. Dayton | 64-58 |
| 2016 | VCU def. Oregon State | 75-67 |
| 2016 | Syracuse def. Dayton | 70-51 |
| 2015 | Ohio State def. VCU | 75-72 |
| 2014 | Stanford def. New Mexico | 58-53 |
| 2013 | Iowa State def. Notre Dame | 76-58 |
| 2012 | Xavier def. Notre Dame | 67-63 |
| 2012 | Purdue def. St. Mary's | 72-69 |
| 2011 | Florida State def. Texas A&M | 57-50 |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech def. Oklahoma State | 64-59 |
| 2010 | Missouri def. Clemson | 86-78 |
| 2010 | St. Mary's def. Richmond | 80-71 |
| 2009 | USC def. Boston College | 72-55 |
| 2009 | Maryland def. California | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Michigan def. Clemson | 62-59 |
Some more tidbits:
- In total, 10 seeds hold a 52-84 record against 7 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. That equates to a .382 winning percentage.
- 10-7 upsets aren't unusual, but blowouts are. West Virginia had the widest margin of victory for a 10 seed when it beat Temple, 82-52, in 1998.
- Creighton (who has the most appearances as a 10 seed with five) is winless as the lower seed, but 1-0 as a 7 seed.
- The lower-seeded team is 11-15 in games decided by three points or less.
- There has been only one tournament in the past 33 years where 7 seeds were swept by 10s (1999).
- The current streak almost ended in 2010 but Brigham Young survived as the last 7 seed, beating Florida by six points.
- On the flip side, there have only been two tournaments where all four 7 seeds advanced: 1993 and 2007.
- 10 seeds went 2-2 against 7s in 2018. Nevada and Butler were the lower seeds who advanced.
How much more likely is a 10 beating a 7 than an 11 beating a 6?
There's hardly a difference. Eleven seeds hold a .375 winning percentage against 6 seeds since 1985, which is just a bit lower than 10 seeds.
How much more likely is a 9 beating an 8 than a 10 beating a 7?
This is where you see some separation between 8s and 9s and 7s and 10s. The 8-9 matchup has a dead-even 68-68 record since 1985, so a 10 beating a 7 is much less likely than a 9 beating an 8.
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Recent/most memorable 10-7 moments
The 2018 matchup between Nevada and Texas was a lot of fun. The Wolf Pack prevailed by a score of 87-83, but the Longhorns took them to overtime.
Butler's win over Arkansas in the same year wasn't quite as nerve-wracking; the Bulldogs dominated from start to finish.
Wichita State would lose in a nail-biter to Kentucky in the next round, but it took down Dayton in the first round of the 2017 tournament:
Remember Syracuse's magical Final Four run in 2016? It started with a decisive win over Dayton in the first round:
And before Syracuse, the last time a 10 seed reached the Elite Eight, Steph Curry's Davidson Wildcats pulled out a six-point win over Gonzaga to start one of the best Cinderella stories in college basketball history.
