Just about two months from Selection Sunday for men's college basketball, NCAA.com basketball expert Andy Katz filled out a 2020 March Madness bracket based on everything he has seen so far this season, through Jan. 13, 2020.
Last year, Katz filed almost a dozen bracket predictions throughout the season. In his final prediction before Selection Sunday, he got 67 of the 68 teams correct.
He also filled out a preseason bracket in September, 50 days before opening night last fall, and one in early December, roughly 100 days from Selection Sunday.
Let's take a look at where Katz projects this year's tournament field about halfway into the regular season, and about two months from Selection Sunday. (Tap or click here to to open the bracket in a new window.)
CHANGING OF THE GUARD: Baylor is the new No. 1 team in Andy Katz's Power 36
And here's that same bracket in table form.
| MIDWEST | WEST | SOUTH | EAST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Butler | Gonzaga | Baylor | Duke |
| 16 | Quinnipiac/Robert Morris | Winthrop | Grambling/Norfolk State | Murray State |
| 2 | Kansas | San Diego State | Auburn | West Virginia |
| 15 | Wright State | Charlotte | South Dakota State | Stony Brook |
| 3 | Dayton | Oregon | Wichita State | Michigan State |
| 14 | Montana | UC Irvine | New Mexico State | Colgate |
| 4 | Florida State | Kentucky | Louisville | Seton Hall |
| 13 | Stephen F. Austin | William & Mary | Western Carolina | Georgia State |
| 5 | Michigan | Stanford | Villanova | Maryland |
| 12 | Yale | Northern Iowa | Florida/Oregon State | Akron |
| 6 | Memphis | Wisconsin | Ohio State | Arkansas |
| 11 | Minnesota | Oklahoma | VCU | Houston/Utah |
| 7 | LSU | Creighton | Arizona | Colorado |
| 10 | Indiana | Purdue | Virginia Tech | Marquette |
| 8 | Illinois | Penn State | Rutgers | Texas Tech |
| 9 | BYU | Liberty | Saint Mary's | Iowa |
Let's take a closer look at Katz's bracket.
Baylor, Duke, Butler, Gonzaga take No. 1 seeds
We already knew the 2019-20 season was volatile with six different teams holding the No. 1 ranking in the AP poll so far this season but Andy Katz's latest bracket projection reinforces that notion. All four No. 1 seeds have changed since his last bracket projection in early December.
Gone are Michigan, Louisville, Kansas and Virginia. Replacing them are Baylor, Duke, Butler and Gonzaga.
Get this: two of the projected No. 1 seed in Katz's latest bracket have never been a No. 1 seed. Baylor has been a No. 3 seed four times, most recently in 2017, and Butler has been a projected seed (a top-four seed) just once when the Bulldogs were a No. 4 seed, also in 2017.
So while Duke was the No. 1 overall seed last season and Gonzaga was also the top seed in its region in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, the 2020 NCAA Tournament could potentially have two newcomers, plus two familiar faces, on the No. 1 seed line, which is exciting.
Another story line is that the Midwest Regional, where Katz currently has Butler as the No. 1 seed in the region, is being held in Indianapolis — Butler's hometown. The 'Dawgs made history in 2010 with their national runner-up finish in Indy, so could they make another Final Four run 10 years later while playing critical tournament games in the same city?
The biggest movers
Baylor, one of Katz's projected No. 1 seeds, climbed 13 spots from the last bracket projection in early December and the Bears can thank last week's road sweep of Texas Tech and Kansas as a major reason why. Their climb from a projected No. 4 seed to a No. 1 seed was impressive but that's nothing compared to Butler's climb from No. 37 on Katz's last seed list (a No. 10 seed) to No. 3.
That's an improvement from a potential bubble team to one of the best teams in the country. Impressive stuff.
Here are the teams that made the biggest jumps from Katz's last seed line projections to his latest one, starting with notable schools that weren't projected to make the 2020 NCAA Tournament in December's bracket projection:
- Wichita State — out of the projected field to No. 10 overall
- Stanford — out of the projected field to No. 17 overall
- Wisconsin — out of the projected field to No. 24 overall
- LSU — out of the projected field to No. 25 overall
- Creighton — out of the projected field to No. 26 overall
- Illinois — out of the projected field to No. 29 overall
- Rutgers — out of the projected field to No. 30 overall
- Iowa — out of the projected field to No. 33 overall
- Virginia Tech — out of the projected field to No. 37 overall
- Indiana — out of the projected field to No. 38 overall
- Minnesota — out of the projected field to No. 43 overall
- Houston — out of the projected field to No. 44 overall
- Utah — out of the projected field to No. 46 overall
- Oregon State — out of the projected field to No. 47 overall
- Butler — 34 spots
- San Diego State — 21 spots
- Baylor — 13 spots
- Villanova — 13 spots
- BYU — 12 spots
- Arkansas — 11 spots
- West Virginia — 11 spots
- Louisville— 10 spots
- Dayton — 9 spots
- Duke — 8 spots
WAIT, WHAT HAPPENED? 25 things you (probably) didn't see coming in the first half of the season
The bubble
Katz's last four at-large bids went to Houston, Florida, Utah and Oregon State.
Since the Beavers earned a No. 5 seed in the 1990 NCAA Tournament, they've made the tournament just once, in 2016 in the second year of current head coach Wayne Tinkle's tenure. So if Oregon State were to squeak into the tournament and play in the First Four, that would be a huge deal in Corvallis.
Katz's first four teams out were Xavier, Saint Louis, Richmond and NC State.
The next four out were USC, Tennessee, Cincinnati and Washington.
AP TOP 25: Check out the latest men's basketball rankings
Here's Katz's full field of 68:
| RANK | SEED | TEAM | CONFERENCE |
|---|
| 1. 1 -- Baylor (AQ) Big 12 |
| 2. 1 -- Duke (AQ) ACC |
| 3. 1 -- Butler Big East |
| 4. 1 -- Gonzaga (AQ) WCC |
| 5. 2 -- San Diego State (AQ) Mountain West |
| 6. 2 -- Auburn (AQ) SEC |
| 7. 2 -- Kansas Big 12 |
| 8. 2 -- West Virginia Big 12 |
| 9. 3 -- Dayton (AQ) A-10 |
| 10. 3 -- Wichita State (AQ) American |
| 11. 3 -- Michigan State (AQ) Big Ten |
| 12. 3 -- Oregon Pac-12 |
| 13. 4 -- Florida State ACC |
| 14. 4 -- Louisville ACC |
| 15. 4 -- Seton Hall (AQ) Big East |
| 16. 4 -- Kentucky SEC |
| 17. 5 -- Stanford (AQ) Pac-12 |
| 18. 5 --- Maryland Big Ten |
| 19. 5 -- Villanova Big East |
| 20. 5 -- Michigan Big Ten |
| 21. 6 -- Memphis AAC |
| 22. 6 -- Arkansas SEC |
| 23. 6 -- Ohio State Big Ten |
| 24. 6 -- Wisconsin Big Ten |
| 25. 7 -- LSU SEC |
| 26. 7 -- Creighton Big East |
| 27. 7 -- Colorado Pac-12 |
| 28. 7 -- Arizona Pac-12 |
| 29. 8 -- Illinois Big Ten |
| 30. 8 -- Rutgers Big Ten |
| 31. 8 -- Penn State Big Ten |
| 32. 8 -- Texas Tech Big 12 |
| 33. 9 -- Iowa Big Ten |
| 34. 9 -- Liberty (AQ) A-Sun |
| 35. 9 -- BYU WCC |
| 36. 9 -- Saint Mary's WCC |
| 37. 10 -- Virginia Tech ACC |
| 38. 10 -- Indiana Big Ten |
| 39. 10 -- Marquette Big East |
| 40. 10 -- Purdue Big Ten |
| 41. 11 -- VCU A-10 |
| 42. 11 -- Oklahoma Big 12 |
| 43. 11 -- Minnesota Big Ten |
| 44. 11 -- Houston American |
| 45. 11 -- Florida SEC |
| 46. 11 -- Utah Pac-12 |
| 47. 12 -- Oregon State Pac-12 |
| 48. 12 -- Akron (AQ) MAC |
| 49. 12 -- Northern Iowa (AQ) Missouri Valley |
| 50. 12 -- Yale (AQ) Ivy |
| 51. 13 -- Stephen F. Austin (AQ) Southland |
| 52. 13 -- Western Carolina (AQ) Southern |
| 53. 13 -- Georgia State (AQ) Sun Belt |
| 54. 13 -- William & Mary (AQ) Colonial |
| 55. 14 -- UC Irvine (AQ) Big West |
| 56. 14 -- New Mexico State (AQ) WAC |
| 57. 14 -- Montana (AQ) Big Sky |
| 58. 14 -- Colgate (AQ) Patriot League |
| 59. 15 -- Stony Brook (AQ) America East |
| 60. 15 -- Wright State (AQ) Horizon |
| 61. 15 -- South Dakota State (AQ) Summit |
| 62. 15 -- Charlotte (AQ) C-USA |
| 63. 16 -- Murray State (AQ) OVC |
| 64. 16 -- Winthrop (AQ) Big South |
| 65. 16 -- Quinnipiac (AQ) MAAC |
| 66. 16 -- Robert Morris (AQ) NEC |
| 67. 16 -- Grambling (AQ) SWAC |
| 68. 16 -- Norfolk State (AQ) MEAC |
Brackets: Andy Katz's first 2021 March Madness projections
