NCAA.com's Andy Katz is out with his first March Madness tournament bracket of 2021 based on everything he has seen this season, through Jan. 4.
In 2019, Katz filed almost a dozen bracket predictions throughout the season. In his final prediction before Selection Sunday, he got 67 of the 68 teams correct.
Let's take a look at where Katz projects this year's tournament field almost halfway into the regular season and about two months from Selection Sunday, March 14. (Tap or click here to to open the bracket in a new window.)
And here's that same bracket in table form.
| Region | region | region | region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | Texas | Baylor | Villanova |
| 16 | Grambling/Coppin State | Southern Utah | Stony Brook/Jacksonville | Bryant |
| 2 | Iowa | Michigan | Tennessee | Illinois |
| 15 | UC Irvine | Cleveland State | Siena | Colgate |
| 3 | Dayton | Creighton | Wisconsin | Kansas |
| 14 | Montana | New Mexico State | Hofstra | Georgia State |
| 4 | Missouri | Rutgers | Oregon | Minnesota |
| 13 | Belmont | South Dakota State | Furman | Toledo |
| 5 | Ohio State | UCLA | Clemson | West Virginia |
| 12 | Western Kentucky | LSU/UConn | Stanford/Xavier | Winthrop |
| 6 | Saint Louis | Virginia Tech | Texas Tech | Florida |
| 11 | Drake | Boise State | North Carolina | Marquette |
| 7 | Louisville | Arkansas | Michigan State | Virginia |
| 10 | Oklahoma | Duke | BYU | Purdue |
| 8 | Indiana | Alabama | Northwestern | Colorado |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | San Diego State | Seton Hall | Florida State |
Let's take a closer look at Katz's bracket.
Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova and Texas earn No. 1 seeds
It shouldn't be a surprise that these are the four No. 1 seeds in Katz's projected bracket. They're ranked No. 1 through No. 4 in the latest AP poll, in that order. Gonzaga and Baylor debuted at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the NET rankings, with Villanova and Texas also in the top 10.
The last time the Zags were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament was in 2019, when they advanced to the Elite Eight. They were also a No. 1 seed in 2017, when they were national runner-up, and in 2013. Baylor has never been a No. 1 seed, although the Bears could've been in contention for one in 2020.
Villanova has previously earned a No. 1 seed four times under coach Jay Wright: 2006, 2015, 2017 and 2018. The Wildcats won the national championship the last time they were a No. 1 seed.
Texas earned its first and only No. 1 seed in 2003, when the Longhorns made the Final Four under Rick Barnes.
It's worth noting that Villanova has already beaten Texas this season — a 68-64 win in Austin — while Texas and Baylor will face off in the Big 12.
The Big Ten doesn't have any No. 1 seeds, but it has lots of everything else
Katz has three Big Ten teams on the No. 2 seed line — Michigan, Illinois and Iowa. In total, there are 11 Big Ten teams in Katz's predicted tournament bracket.
Wisconsin is a projected No. 3 seed, Rutgers and Minnesota are No. 4 seeds, Ohio State is a No. 5 seed, Michigan State is a No. 7 seed, Northwestern and Indiana are on the No. 8 seed line, and Purdue is a projected No. 10 seed. Through Jan. 4, all 11 teams are in the top 50 of the NET rankings.
If some or all of those projections hold, here are some notable milestones that could be achieved and potential tournament droughts that could end:
- Northwestern could make the NCAA tournament for just the second time ever, after it made it for the first time in 2017.
- Rutgers is projected to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991.
- Illinois is projected to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013.
- Indiana is projected to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016.
- Minnesota could earn its best seed since it was a No. 1 seed in the 1997 NCAA Tournament, if the Gophers earn a No. 4 seed or better. Katz currently has the Gophers as a projected No. 4 seed. Four of their last five tournament appearances were as a double-digit seed and they haven't made the second weekend of the tournament since 1997. Minnesota's 1997 NCAA Tournament appearance was later vacated.
- Iowa could earn its best seed since 2006, when it earned a No. 3 seed. The Hawkeyes have received a No. 10, No. 7, No. 7 and No. 11 seed, respectively, in their last four tournament appearances.
Recent national champions in the double digits
Duke and North Carolina combined to win three national championships last decade and the Tar Heels were the national runners-up in 2016, so the two Tobacco Road rivals combined to appear in 40 percent of the championship games from 2010 through 2019.
In Katz's predicted bracket for 2021, Duke is a No. 10 seed and North Carolina is a No. 11 seed.
Kentucky, which won the 2012 national championship and lost in the 2014 national championship, isn't in the tournament picture for Katz after starting 2-6.
A breakdown of the bubble
It's still early in conference play, obviously, but here's a look at the teams that just made the cut for Katz's tournament projections.
LSU and UConn are projected to play in one First Four matchup, with Stanford and Xavier in the other. All four schools are No. 12 seeds.
The projected No. 11 seeds are Drake, North Carolina, Marquette and Boise State.
Here's Katz's full field of 68:
| RANK | SEED | TEAM | CONFERENCE |
|---|
| 1. 1 -- Gonzaga | WCC |
| 2. 1 -- Baylor | Big 12 |
| 3. 1 -- Villanova | Big East |
| 4. 1 -- Texas | Big 12 |
| 5. 2 -- Michigan | Big Ten |
| 6. 2 -- Illinois | Big Ten |
| 7. 2 -- Tennessee | SEC |
| 8. 2 -- Iowa | Big Ten |
| 9. 3 -- Houston | American |
| 10. 3 -- Wisconsin | Big Ten |
| 11. 3 -- Kansas | Big 12 |
| 12. 3 -- Creighton | Big East |
| 13. 4 -- Rutgers | Big Ten |
| 14. 4 -- Minnesota | Big Ten |
| 15. 4 -- Missouri | SEC |
| 16. 4 -- Oregon | Pac-12 |
| 17. 5 -- Ohio State | Big Ten |
| 18. 5 --- West Virginia | Big 12 |
| 19. 5 -- Clemson | ACC |
| 20. 5 -- UCLA | Pac-12 |
| 21. 6 -- Virginia Tech | ACC |
| 22. 6 -- Florida | SEC |
| 23. 6 -- Texas Tech | Big 12 |
| 24. 6 -- Saint Louis | A-10 |
| 25. 7 -- Louisville | ACC |
| 26. 7 -- Virginia | ACC |
| 27. 7 -- Michigan State | Big Ten |
| 28. 7 -- Arkansas | SEC |
| 29. 8 -- Colorado | Pac-12 |
| 30. 8 -- Alabama | SEC |
| 31. 8 -- Northwestern | Big Ten |
| 32. 8 -- Indiana | Big Ten |
| 33. 9 -- Oklahoma State | Big 12 |
| 34. 9 -- Seton Hall | Big East |
| 35. 9 -- San Diego State | Mountain West |
| 36. 9 -- Florida State | ACC |
| 37. 10 -- Duke | ACC |
| 38. 10 -- BYU | WCC |
| 39. 10 -- Purdue | Big Ten |
| 40. 10 -- Oklahoma | Big 12 |
| 41. 11 -- Drake | Missouri Valley |
| 42. 11 -- North Carolina | ACC |
| 43. 11 -- Marquette | Big East |
| 44. 11 -- Boise State | Mountain West |
| 45. 11 -- LSU | SEC |
| 46. 11 -- Stanford | Pac-12 |
| 47. 12 -- UConn | Big East |
| 48. 12 -- Xavier | Big East |
| 49. 12 -- Winthrop | Big South |
| 50. 12 -- Western Kentucky | C-USA |
| 51. 13 -- Furman | Southern |
| 52. 13 -- Belmont | OVC |
| 53. 13 -- Toledo | MAC |
| 54. 13 -- South Dakota State | Summit |
| 55. 14 -- New Mexico State | WAC |
| 56. 14 -- Georgia State | Sun Belt |
| 57. 14 -- Hofstra | CAA |
| 58. 14 -- Abilene Christian | Southland |
| 59. 15 -- UC Irvine | Big West |
| 60. 15 -- Colgate | Patriot |
| 61. 15 -- Siena | MAAC |
| 62. 15 -- Cleveland State | Horizon |
| 63. 16 -- Southern Utah | Big Sky |
| 64. 16 -- Bryant | NEC |
| 65. 16 -- Stony Brook | America East |
| 66. 16 -- Jacksonville | A-Sun |
| 67. 16 -- Grambling | SWAC |
| 68. 16 -- Coppin State | MEAC |
