Joe Boozell | NCAA.com | February 5, 2021

History of 11 seeds vs. 6 seeds in March Madness

Dayton upsets Ohio State in a 2014 in-state matchup in the round of 64

The 11-6 March Madness upset pick isn't as sexy as the 12-5, but it's had a higher hit rate lately. No. 11 seeds are 9-7 against 6s over the past four years and have had a good amount of historical success in general.

Here's everything you need to know about 11s vs. 6s in March Madness.

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History of 11 vs. 6 seeds in March Madness

There have been 52 No. 11 seeds that have defeated No. 6 seeds (37.1 percent) since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Here's a list of all of them:

11 vs. 6 upsets
Year	Result	Score
2019	Ohio State def. Iowa State	62-59
2018	Loyola-Chicago def. Miami (FL)	64-62
2018	Syracuse def. TCU	57-52
2017	Rhode Island def. Creighton	84-72
2017	USC def. SMU	66-65
2017	Xavier def. Maryland	76-65
2016	Northern Iowa def. Texas	75-72
2016	Gonzaga def. Seton Hall	68-52
2016	Wichita State def. Arizona	65-55
2015	Dayton def. Providence	66-53
2015	UCLA def. SMU	60-59
2014	Tennessee def. UMass	86-67
2014	Dayton def. Ohio State	60-59
2013	Minnesota def. UCLA	83-63
2012	Colorado def. UNLV	68-64
2012	NC State def. San Diego State	79-65
2011	Marquette def. Xavier	66-55
2011	VCU def. Georgetown	74-56
2011	Gonzaga def. St. John's	86-71
2010	Washington def. Marquette	80-78
2010	Old Dominion def. Notre Dame	51-50
2009	Dayton def. West Virginia	68-62
2008	Kansas State def. USC	80-67
2007	Winthrop def. Notre Dame	76-64
2007	VCU def. Duke	79-77
2006	Milwaukee def. Oklahoma	82-74
2006	George Mason def. Michigan State	75-65
2005	UAB def. LSU	62-68
2003	Central Michigan def. Creighton	79-73
2002	Wyoming def. Gonzaga	73-68
2002	Southern Illinois def. Texas Tech	76-68
2001	Georgia State def. Wisconsin	50-49
2001	Temple def. Texas	79-65
2000	Pepperdine def. Indiana	77-57
1998	Washington def. Xavier	69-68
1998	Western Michigan def. Clemson	75-72
1996	Boston College def. Indiana	64-51
1995	Texas def. Oregon	90-73
1994	Penn def. Nebraska	90-80
1993	Tulane def. Kansas State	55-53
1991	Creighton def. New Mexico State	64-56
1991	UConn def. LSU	79-62
1990	Loyola Marymount def. New Mexico State	111-92
1989	Minnesota def. Kansas State	86-75
1989	Evansville def. Oregon State	94-90
1989	South Alabama def. Alabama	86-84
1989	Texas def. Georgia Tech	76-70
1988	Rhode Island def. Missouri	87-80
1986	LSU def. Purdue	94-87
1985	Boston College def. Texas Tech	55-53
1985	UTEP def. Tulsa	79-75
1985	Auburn def. Purdue	59-58

Some more tidbits:

The 1989 NCAA Tournament was a special one for No. 11 seeds. That year, every No. 11 seed won against the No. 6 seeds, by an average of 5.75 points.
No. 11 seeds have been particularly successful against 6s lately. The last 10 years, 11s have a 21-19 record over 6s.
No. 11 seeds went a combined 6-2 against 6s in 2016 and 2017.
LSU, George Mason and VCU all made history as the lowest seeds to ever make the Final Four and all won by considerable margins against their first-round match-ups. Loyola-Chicago also made the Final Four as an 11, but its first round game was much closer than those.
Pepperdine beat Indiana in a 20-point blowout, 77-57, in Bobby Knight’s last game as the Hoosiers’ coach. It was the largest 11 over 6 margin ever.

Why the 13 over 4 upset pick is undervalued in March Madness brackets

How much more likely is an 11-6 upset than a 12-5 upset?

There have been 50 12-5 upsets since the NCAA tournament field expanded. That means No. 12 seeds hold a 50-90 record against 5s, which equates to a 35.71 win percentage. Thus, an 11-6 upset is 1.43 percentage points more likely to happen than a 12-5.

How much more likely is a 10-7 upset than an 11-6 upset?

No. 10 seeds hold a 55-85 record against No. 7 seeds. That equates to a 39.29 win percentage. So, a 10-7 upset is just 2.15 percentage points more likely to happen than an 11-6.

Recent/memorable 11-6 games

The 2019 tournament was the first time in six seasons that multiple No. 11 seeds didn't reach the Round of 32. Ohio State was the lone representative for No. 11 seeds in the second round after upsetting Iowa State:

Ohio State upsets Iowa State, 62-59

Who can forget Donte Ingram's shot against Miami to send Loyola-Chicago to the second round in 2018? It was the start of a magical run for the Ramblers:

Loyola Chicago's fantastic finish to beat Miami

And of course: Northern Iowa's Paul Jesperson hit a legendary shot in 2016 to push the Panthers past Texas:

UNI vs. UT: P. Jesperson buzzer-beater

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