Men's college basketball returns in less than two months and it's never too soon for bracket predictions for the 2022 NCAA men's basketball tournament field. The season begins Nov. 9 and NCAA.com basketball expert Andy Katz has released his first projected bracket for March Madness.
Here are his top 10 teams in his overall seed list:
- UCLA
- Gonzaga
- Texas
- Purdue
- Kansas
- Michigan
- Villanova
- Illinois
- Ohio State
- Kentucky
Let’s take a look at the rest of Katz’s preseason March Madness field:
| Seed | West | Midwest | South | East |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA | Gonzaga | Texas | Purdue |
| 16 | Norfolk State / Texas Southern | Weber State | Navy | Hartford / Bryant |
| 8 | Texas Tech | Mississippi State | Xavier | St. Bonaventure |
| 9 | Auburn | Rutgers | Arkansas | Oklahoma State |
| 5 | Syracuse | Indiana | Baylor | Duke |
| 12 | Iona | Cleveland State | Belmont | Loyola Chicago |
| 4 | Maryland | Virginia | Memphis | Houston |
| 13 | Toledo | Liberty | Old Dominion | Oral Roberts |
| 6 | North Carolina | Florida State | UConn | West Virginia |
| 11 | Wichita State / Colorado State | Colorado | Iowa / BYU | VCU |
| 3 | Alabama | Ohio State | Oregon | Kentucky |
| 14 | UCSB | Wofford | Grand Canyon | Yale |
| 7 | Southern California | LSU | Florida | Michigan State |
| 10 | St. John's | San Diego State | Oklahoma | Tennessee |
| 2 | Illinois | Kansas | Michigan | Villanova |
| 15 | Abilene Christian | Texas State | James Madison | Winthrop |
Now, let's take a closer look at the bracket.
UCLA, Gonzaga, Texas and Purdue are Katz's No. 1 seeds
Katz's initial group of No. 1 seeds show consistency with his projections through the offseason.
UCLA takes the top spot after making a surprise First Four to Final Four run in 2021. Katz has been high on the Bruins ever since breakout March Madness star Johnny Juzang announced his return.
Gonzaga enters the season as the second overall team in the field of 68 after falling short in last year's national championship game. Player of the Year candidate Drew Timme is back, along with West Coast Conference Sixth Man of the Year Andrew Nembhard. They'll be joined by one of the nation's top freshmen, Chet Holmgren.
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Texas gets a No. 1 seed after an offseason full of movement. The Longhorns hired head coach Chris Beard away from in-state conference rival Texas Tech. They also acquired a slew of transfers, including guard Marcus Carr from Minnesota. These changes at Texas have the Longhorns primed for success in 2021-22.
Purdue gets the final top seed as Katz projects the Boilermakers to win the Big Ten. Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey highlight one of the nation's best teams in arguably the nation's best conference.
Storied programs set to bounce back
After a disappointing year from some of college basketball's most storied programs, Katz foresees a bounce-back year for a few familiar names. We've already discussed UCLA, but Kentucky, Duke, and Indiana are all projected to make the 2022 NCAA tournament after missing the field last season.
Kentucky received a No. 3 seed in Katz's bracket and landed as the 10th team in the field of 68. In 2021, the Wildcats missed the tournament for the first time since 2013. With new transfers and highly-touted freshmen, Kentucky will look to get back to its winning ways.
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Duke enters 2022 looking to send out legendary college basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski on a high note. After missing the tournament for the first time since 1995, the freshmen-laden Blue Devils are a No. 5 seed in this preseason bracket.
Indiana last made the tournament in 2016. The Hoosiers will enter 2021 with a new head coach in Mike Woodson and new expectations for the season. Projected as a No. 5 seed and 20th overall on the seed list, the Hoosiers might finally be able to turn things around. It doesn't hurt that the Hoosier have star Trayce Jackson-Davis coming back either.
New coaches poised for success
There are eight teams in Katz's first preseason bracket that have new head coaches. No. 1 seed Texas is joined by Indiana, North Carolina, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Abilene Christian and Winthrop as teams projected to make the 2022 NCAA tournament with a new head coach.
The premier coaching replacement in 2022 is North Carolina's Hubert Davis taking over for Basketball-Hall-of-Famer Roy Williams. In Davis' first stint as a head coach, Katz sees the Tar Heels as a No. 6 seed with the talent to make a deep tournament run.
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Elsewhere, multiple-time tournament Cinderella Loyola Chicago will have a new coach at the helm. With Porter Moser leaving to fill the vacancy at Oklahoma, Drew Valentine steps in after four years as an assistant coach for the Ramblers. At 29 years old, Valentine is the youngest head coach in Division I men's basketball. Despite Valentine's youth, Katz believes Loyola Chicago's veteran team can return to the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive season.
The Big Ten may be the nation's best conference
The Big Ten leads all conferences with nine teams in Katz's first bracket, matching the conference's total number of teams from the 2021 NCAA tournament. Of course, in 2022 March Madness, the Big Ten would like an all-around better performance after just one team advanced to the Sweet 16 last year.
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Luckily, the Big Ten should be loaded with talent in 2022. Six Big Ten teams are in the top 20 of Katz's field of 68. Purdue received a No. 1 seed, while both Michigan and Illinois each got No. 2 seeds. Third-seeded Ohio State rounded out the top 10 teams at No. 9 overall. With great in-conference depth, the Big Ten should be battle-tested entering the 2022 NCAA tournament.
| ConFerence | Total Teams | Teams (Automatic Qualifier in bold) |
|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 9 | Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Rutgers, Iowa |
| SEC | 8 | Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee |
| Big 12 | 7 | Texas, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma |
| ACC | 5 | Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State |
| Pac-12 | 4 | UCLA, Oregon, Southern California, Colorado |
| Big East | 4 | Villanova, UConn, Xavier, St. John's |
| American Athletic | 4 | Memphis, Houston, Wichita State |
| Atlantic 10 | 2 | St. Bonaventure, VCU |
| Mountain West | 2 | San Diego State, Colorado State |
| West Coast | 2 | Gonzaga, BYU |
4 more top storylines
Here are a few additional notables from Katz's preseason bracket:
- No. 4 seed Memphis: Highly-touted freshmen Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren bring high expectations for the Tigers.
- No. 5 seed Baylor: The reigning national champions have added Arizona transfer James Akinjo to help keep pace..
- No. 13 seed Oral Roberts: Cinderella of the 2021 tournament should return in 2022 with high-powered scorer Max Abmas in tow.
- No. 14 seed Yale: After the Ivy League didn't participate in athletics for a year, the Bulldogs are back.
Who's left just outside the field, right now
Katz went beyond the field of 68 to make some predictions on the teams that just miss the cut, as of now.
Last four in:
- Wichita State
- Colorado State
- Iowa
- BYU
First four out:
- Washington State
- Seton Hall
- Wisconsin
- Boise State
16 more teams for consideration:
- Creighton
- Providence
- Butler
- Oregon State
- Virginia Tech
- Georgia Tech
- Louisville
- Richmond
- Loyola Marymount
- Nevada
- SMU
- Saint Louis
- St. Mary's (CA)
- Nebraska
- UCF
- Arizona
Andy Katz's field of 68
Here is Katz’s full seed list in order, 1-68:
| RANK | TEAM | SEED |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA | 1 |
| 2 | Gonzaga | 1 |
| 3 | Texas | 1 |
| 4 | Purdue | 1 |
| 5 | Kansas | 2 |
| 6 | Michigan | 2 |
| 7 | Villanova | 2 |
| 8 | Illinois | 2 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 3 |
| 10 | Kentucky | 3 |
| 11 | Alabama | 3 |
| 12 | Oregon | 3 |
| 13 | Memphis | 4 |
| 14 | Maryland | 4 |
| 15 | Houston | 4 |
| 16 | Virginia | 4 |
| 17 | Baylor | 5 |
| 18 | Syracuse | 5 |
| 19 | Duke | 5 |
| 20 | Indiana | 5 |
| 21 | North Carolina | 6 |
| 22 | West Virginia | 6 |
| 23 | Florida State | 6 |
| 24 | UConn | 6 |
| 25 | Southern California | 7 |
| 26 | LSU | 7 |
| 27 | Florida | 7 |
| 28 | Michigan State | 7 |
| 29 | St. Bonaventure | 8 |
| 30 | Xavier | 8 |
| 31 | Mississippi State | 8 |
| 32 | Texas Tech | 8 |
| 33 | Oklahoma State | 9 |
| 34 | Arkansas | 9 |
| 35 | Auburn | 9 |
| 36 | Rutgers | 9 |
| 37 | St. John's | 10 |
| 38 | Tennessee | 10 |
| 39 | San Diego State | 10 |
| 40 | Oklahoma | 10 |
| 41 | Colorado | 11 |
| 42 | VCU | 11 |
| 43 | Wichita State | 11 |
| 44 | Colorado State | 11 |
| 45 | Iowa | 12 |
| 46 | BYU | 12 |
| 47 | Loyola Chicago | 12 |
| 48 | Belmont | 12 |
| 49 | Iona | 12 |
| 50 | Cleveland State | 12 |
| 51 | Oral Roberts | 13 |
| 52 | Old Dominion | 13 |
| 53 | Toledo | 13 |
| 54 | Liberty | 13 |
| 55 | Yale | 14 |
| 56 | Grand Canyon | 14 |
| 57 | UCSB | 14 |
| 58 | Wofford | 14 |
| 59 | James Madison | 15 |
| 60 | Texas State | 15 |
| 61 | Abilene Christian | 15 |
| 62 | Winthrop | 15 |
| 63 | Weber State | 16 |
| 64 | Navy | 16 |
| 65 | Hartford | 16 |
| 66 | Bryant | 16 |
| 67 | Norfolk State | 16 |
| 68 | Texas Southern | 16 |
