The 11-6 March Madness upset pick isn't as sexy as the 12-5, but it's had a higher hit rate lately. No. 11 seeds are 11-9 against 6s over the past five years and have had a good amount of historical success in general. In 2021, UCLA topped BYU as an 11 seed — and didn't stop winning until reaching the Final Four.
Here's everything you need to know about 11s vs. 6s in March Madness.
History of 11 vs. 6 seeds in March Madness
There have been 54 No. 11 seeds that have defeated No. 6 seeds (37.5 percent) since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Here's a list of all of them:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Syracuse def. San Diego State | 78-62 |
| 2021 | UCLA def. BYU | 73-62 |
| 2019 | Ohio State def. Iowa State | 62-59 |
| 2018 | Loyola Chicago def. Miami (FL) | 64-62 |
| 2018 | Syracuse def. TCU | 57-52 |
| 2017 | Rhode Island def. Creighton | 84-72 |
| 2017 | USC def. SMU | 66-65 |
| 2017 | Xavier def. Maryland | 76-65 |
| 2016 | Northern Iowa def. Texas | 75-72 |
| 2016 | Gonzaga def. Seton Hall | 68-52 |
| 2016 | Wichita State def. Arizona | 65-55 |
| 2015 | Dayton def. Providence | 66-53 |
| 2015 | UCLA def. SMU | 60-59 |
| 2014 | Tennessee def. UMass | 86-67 |
| 2014 | Dayton def. Ohio State | 60-59 |
| 2013 | Minnesota def. UCLA | 83-63 |
| 2012 | Colorado def. UNLV | 68-64 |
| 2012 | NC State def. San Diego State | 79-65 |
| 2011 | Marquette def. Xavier | 66-55 |
| 2011 | VCU def. Georgetown | 74-56 |
| 2011 | Gonzaga def. St. John's | 86-71 |
| 2010 | Washington def. Marquette | 80-78 |
| 2010 | Old Dominion def. Notre Dame | 51-50 |
| 2009 | Dayton def. West Virginia | 68-62 |
| 2008 | Kansas State def. USC | 80-67 |
| 2007 | Winthrop def. Notre Dame | 76-64 |
| 2007 | VCU def. Duke | 79-77 |
| 2006 | Milwaukee def. Oklahoma | 82-74 |
| 2006 | George Mason def. Michigan State | 75-65 |
| 2005 | UAB def. LSU | 62-68 |
| 2003 | Central Michigan def. Creighton | 79-73 |
| 2002 | Wyoming def. Gonzaga | 73-68 |
| 2002 | Southern Illinois def. Texas Tech | 76-68 |
| 2001 | Georgia State def. Wisconsin | 50-49 |
| 2001 | Temple def. Texas | 79-65 |
| 2000 | Pepperdine def. Indiana | 77-57 |
| 1998 | Washington def. Xavier | 69-68 |
| 1998 | Western Michigan def. Clemson | 75-72 |
| 1996 | Boston College def. Indiana | 64-51 |
| 1995 | Texas def. Oregon | 90-73 |
| 1994 | Penn def. Nebraska | 90-80 |
| 1993 | Tulane def. Kansas State | 55-53 |
| 1991 | Creighton def. New Mexico State | 64-56 |
| 1991 | UConn def. LSU | 79-62 |
| 1990 | Loyola Marymount def. New Mexico State | 111-92 |
| 1989 | Minnesota def. Kansas State | 86-75 |
| 1989 | Evansville def. Oregon State | 94-90 |
| 1989 | South Alabama def. Alabama | 86-84 |
| 1989 | Texas def. Georgia Tech | 76-70 |
| 1988 | Rhode Island def. Missouri | 87-80 |
| 1986 | LSU def. Purdue | 94-87 |
| 1985 | Boston College def. Texas Tech | 55-53 |
| 1985 | UTEP def. Tulsa | 79-75 |
| 1985 | Auburn def. Purdue | 59-58 |
Some more tidbits:
- The 1989 NCAA tournament was a special one for No. 11 seeds. That year, every No. 11 seed won against the No. 6 seeds, by an average of 5.75 points.
- No. 11 seeds have been particularly successful against 6s lately. The last 10 years, 11s have a 23-21 record over 6s.
- No. 11 seeds went a combined 6-2 against 6s in 2016 and 2017.
- LSU, George Mason, VCU and UCLA all made history as the lowest seeds to ever make the Final Four and all won by considerable margins against their first-round match-ups. Loyola Chicago also made the Final Four as an 11, but its first round game was much closer than those.
- Pepperdine beat Indiana in a 20-point blowout, 77-57, in Bobby Knight’s last game as the Hoosiers’ coach. It was the largest 11 over 6 margin ever.
MORE: The 13 over 4 upset pick is undervalued in March Madness brackets
How much more likely is an 11-6 upset than a 12-5 upset?
There have been 51 12-5 upsets since the NCAA tournament field expanded. That means No. 12 seeds hold a 51-93 record against 5s, which equates to a 35.42 win percentage. Thus, an 11-6 upset is about two percentage points more likely to happen than a 12-5.
How much more likely is a 10-7 upset than an 11-6 upset?
No. 10 seeds hold a 57-87 record against No. 7 seeds. That equates to a 39.6 win percentage. So, a 10-7 upset is about two percentage points more likely to happen than an 11-6.
Recent/memorable 11-6 games
Multiple 11 seeds have advanced in four of the last five NCAA tournaments: 2016 (three), 2017 (three), 2018 (two) and 2021 (two).
Last season, UCLA and Syracuse both pulled out wins. The Bruins then memorably marched all the way to the national semifinals — going from First Four to Final Four.
Who can forget Donte Ingram's shot against Miami to send Loyola Chicago to the second round in 2018? It was the start of a magical run for the Ramblers:
And of course: Northern Iowa's Paul Jesperson hit a legendary shot in 2016 to push the Panthers past Texas:
