The 12-5 upset is one of the most popular March Madness picks each year, and for good reason. It's happened quite a few times since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. In 2022, No. 12 Richmond took out No. 5 Iowa and New Mexico State beat UConn.
Here's everything you need to know about 12 seeds vs. 5 seeds in March Madness.
History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 52 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2022, the lower seed was 51-93, equating to a 35.42 win percentage.
Here are all of the times a 12 seed has knocked off a 5 seed.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Kentucky def. Washington | 66-58 |
| 1986 | DePaul def. Virginia | 72-68 |
| 1987 | Wyoming def. Virginia | 64-60 |
| 1989 | DePaul def. Memphis State | 66-63 |
| 1990 | Dayton def. Illinois | 88-86 |
| 1990 | Ball State def. Oregon State | 54-53 |
| 1991 | Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State | 76-56 |
| 1992 | New Mexico State def. DePaul | 81-73 |
| 1993 | George Washington def. New Mexico | 82-68 |
| 1994 | UW-Green Bay def. California | 61-57 |
| 1994 | Tulsa def. UCLA | 112-102 |
| 1995 | Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona | 71-62 |
| 1996 | Drexel def. Memphis | 75-63 |
| 1996 | Arkansas def. Penn State | 86-80 |
| 1997 | College of Charleston def. Maryland | 75-66 |
| 1998 | Florida State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1999 | Detroit def. UCLA | 56-53 |
| 1999 | Missouri State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 2001 | Utah State def. Ohio State | 77-68 (OT) |
| 2001 | Gonzaga def. Virginia | 86-85 |
| 2002 | Tulsa def. Marquette | 71-69 |
| 2002 | Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) | 93-80 |
| 2002 | Creighton def. Florida | 83-82 (2OT) |
| 2003 | Butler def. Mississippi State | 47-46 |
| 2004 | Pacific def. Providence | 66-58 |
| 2005 | Milwaukee def. Alabama | 83-73 |
| 2006 | Montana def. Nevada | 87-79 |
| 2006 | Texas A&M def. Syracuse | 66-58 |
| 2008 | Villanova def. Clemson | 75-69 |
| 2008 | Western Kentucky def. Drake | 101-99 (OT) |
| 2009 | Wisconsin def. Florida State | 61-59 (OT) |
| 2009 | Arizona def. Utah | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Western Kentucky def. Illinois | 76-72 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75(OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
| 2022 | Richmond def. Iowa | 67-63 |
| 2022 | New Mexico State def. UConn | 70-63 |
Some more tidbits:
- In 31 of the last 36 years, the 12 seed has won at least one first round game. The only exceptions came in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
- In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). The 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.
- Utah State, who has been the No. 12 seed a record five times, is only 1-4 against No. 5 seeds. Its lone win came in 2001 against Ohio State.
How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-one 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 31-113 record all-time. That equates to a 21.53 winning percentage, so it's 14 percentage points less likely.
Here are all of the times a 13 seed has upset a 4.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
Recent highlights of 12-5 upsets
Here are some highlights from the 12-5 upsets that have happened lately.
Richmond beat Iowa in 2022:
Oregon State topped Tennessee by 14 points in 2021:
Murray State's Ja Morant joined exclusive company in 2019, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the 12-seed Racers took down No. 5 Marquette, 83-64.
Liberty, fresh off an ASUN championship, edged Mississippi State in another 2019 12-5 game.
Oregon also won big in the opening round of 2019, dismantling Wisconsin 72-54 before reaching the Sweet 16.
Little Rock shocked Purdue in 2016, eking out a 79-75 win.
