If you like Michigan or Virginia Tech to pull an 11-over-6 upset this year, you aren't alone.
More than half of the completed Men's Bracket Challenge Game brackets had No. 11 Michigan knocking out No. 6 Colorado State (50.79 percent). A similar number of brackets have No. 11 Virginia Tech (50.13) beating No. 6 Texas.
If you're thinking even bigger for a Cinderella by seed, No. 13 South Dakota State is picked to defeat No. 4 Providence on 38.36 percent of brackets. In other words, the 13th-seeded Jackrabbits are a more popular pick to advance than any No. 12 seed. That percentage is drastically higher than the top No. 13 pick last year, when 20.85 percent had Ohio topping Virginia. And the Bobcats did just that — as did North Texas, which was correctly selected to beat Purdue on 11.32 percent of brackets.
Here's a more complete look at the upset picks, broken down by seed. The most popular upset pick for each seed in the MBCG is bolded.
No. 16 vs. No. 1
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 16 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Baylor | 3.38 |
| No. 16 Wright State vs. No. 1 Arizona | 2.40 |
| No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Kansas | 2.30 |
| No. 16 Georgia State vs. No. 1 Gonzaga | 2.28 |
Baylor is the defending champion, but the Bears are the fourth No. 1 this year. Fans also might be thinking Norfolk State could work some magic again. Ten years ago, Norfolk State became the fifth No. 15 seed to shock a No. 2, as the Spartans stunned No. 2 Missouri — the first 15-over-2 since 2001.
No. 15 vs. No. 2
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 15 Jacksonville State vs. No. 2 Auburn | 4.41 |
| No. 15 Delaware vs. No. 2 Villanova | 3.99 |
| No. 15 Saint Peter's vs. No. 2 Kentucky | 3.04 |
| No. 15 Cal State Fullerton vs. No. 2 Duke | 2.84 |
The percentages are lower this year, as big-name powers help make up the seed list and Auburn seemed poised to grab a top seed not too long ago.
For those curious, Oral Roberts was picked on 4.25 percent of brackets against Ohio State. We know how that turned out.
No. 14 vs. No. 3
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 14 Colgate vs. No. 3 Wisconsin | 13.9 |
| No. 14 Montana State vs. No. 3 Texas Tech | 10.89 |
| No. 14 Longwood vs. No. 3 Tennessee | 6.20 |
| No. 14 Yale vs. No. 3 Purdue | 6.15 |
They're back. Colgate is the top 14 seed pick once more, with the Raiders following up 2021's 16.52 percent vs. No. 3 Arkansas with a 13.82 this year. Last season, only 8 percent foresaw Abilene Christian eliminating Texas.
No. 13 vs. No. 4
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 13 South Dakota State vs. No. 4 Providence | 38.36 |
| No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Arkansas | 28.25 |
| No. 13 Chattanooga vs. No. 4 Illinois | 19.29 |
| No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4 UCLA | 7.00 |
Two 13 seeds successfully upset 4s in 2021: Ohio (vs. Virginia) and North Texas (vs. Purdue). That could be keeping folks' eyes open for more this time, as we're seeing a dramatic rise in picks. In 2021, adding up the No. 13 seeds' percentages totaled 53.61 percent. This year they're getting to 92.48 percent.
You can also thank South Dakota State and Vermont for that rise. The Jackrabbbits are 30-4, haven't lost since Dec. 15 and have one of the most lethal offenses in the nation. Vermont is 28-5, has lost just once since Dec. 7 and won its three America East tournament games by 39, 32 and 39 points.
No. 12 vs. No. 5
| Matchup | UPSET PICK PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|
| No. 12 Indiana vs. No. Saint Mary's | 30.27 |
| No. 12 UAB vs. No. 5 Houston | 22.33 |
| No. 12 New Mexico State vs. No. 5 UConn | 16.09 |
| No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 5 Iowa | 9.36 |
Note that Indiana's percentage includes any brackets that picked the IU-Wyoming winner out of the First Four and didn't change after the result, meaning some users might have thought Wyoming would win but didn't switch their pick for the No. 12 seed against the Gaels.
No. 11 vs. No. 6
| Matchup | UPSET PICK PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|
| No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 6 Colorado State | 50.79 |
| No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 6 Texas | 50.13 |
| No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Alabama | 30.55 |
| No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 6 LSU | 28.12 |
Two 11 seeds have gone from the First Four to the Final Four: 2011 VCU and UCLA only a year ago. But you have to get out of the round of 64 first. Fans really like both the Wolverines and the Hokies so much that more BCG brackets have the 11s winning those games more often than the 6s.
