Just like in the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament, the tournament field will be cut down to a quarter of its size after the second weekend, as the Sweet 16 will give way to the Final Four, setting up for the sport's showcase in New Orleans.
Here's one reason why each men's basketball team in the Sweet 16 could make the Final Four. Advanced stats are courtesy of kenpom.com.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga
Reason: Drew Timme is playing like the preseason national player of the year, and getting help around him
After returning for his junior season following Gonzaga's 31-1 season and national runner-up finish in 2021, forward Drew Timme was many media outlets' pick to be the preseason national player of the year, a recognition that's oftentimes as much retroactive as it is forward-looking. Well, Timme has been playing at that level in the NCAA tournament, scoring a combined 57 points on 23-for-37 shooting performance — his second-highest two-game point total of his entire career — while pulling down 27 total rebounds and dishing out six assists to just two turnovers.
While his talented frontcourt mate Chet Holmgren had a fairly quiet nine-point, nine-rebound performance against Memphis, starting guards Andrew Nembard and Rasir Bolton combined for 40 points — 17 more than their combined scoring average this season — on 8-for-16 3-point shooting. Despite Gonzaga losing Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi and Corey Kispert, Gonzaga's current guards and wings are still capable of packing a scoring punch.
Not only has Gonzaga made the Sweet 16 for the seventh NCAA tournament in a row, but in four of the previous six appearances, the Zags made the Elite Eight and they played for the national title in two of them. As the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, with a roster featuring one of the most talented players in the country (Holmgren) and players who played for a title last year, Gonzaga is more than capable of another Final Four run, for the third time in five NCAA tournaments.
No. 4 seed Arkansas
Reason: A track record of beating good opponents at different tempos
Facing No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, Arkansas has one of the toughest paths — maybe the single toughest — to the Final Four. But from mid-January through early March, the Razorbacks played some of the best basketball in the country, going 14-1 in a 15-game stretch, beating eventual No. 2 seeds Auburn and Kentucky, and future No. 3 seed Tennessee. They won games while scoring as few as 58 points and as many as 99.
With the No. 14 defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, and the No. 28 tempo, Arkansas has a blend of speed and defense, both of which are needed to hang with the Zags. Gonzaga's statistical profile (22nd in defensive free throw rate allowed) suggests it could neutralize one of Arkansas' greatest strengths, getting to the free-throw line, where it attempts almost four free throws for every 10 field goal attempts, so the Razorbacks might have to maximize their offensive efficiency in other ways, such as taking care of the ball and crashing the offensive glass. They're slightly above average at both, and Gonzaga just allowed Memphis to grab a third of its missed shots, while only committing five turnovers in a narrow loss.
Arkansas has a versatile forward in Jaylin Williams (10.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game), who had a double-double in each of the Razorbacks' first two NCAA tournament games. If he can produce a third against the frontcourt of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren, then maybe, just maybe, Arkansas can contend for an upset bid.
No. 3 seed Texas Tech
Reason: The No. 1 defense in the country
There are a lot of cliches about defense. "Defense travels," "defense wins championships," etc. Well, the Red Raiders rank first nationally in kenpom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, as they force a turnover on 23.5 percent of opponents' offensive possessions while allowing them to shoot just 31.4 percent from 3-point range and 44 percent inside the arc.
Earlier this season, Texas Tech knocked off eventual No. 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor in back-to-back games in a four-day stretch. That's the kind of quick-turnaround performance against elite competition it will take for Texas Tech to reach the Final Four. The Red Raiders beat the Bears again, this time sandwiched in between wins over NCAA tournament teams TCU and Texas. They beat Tennessee on a neutral floor.
While their 14-point loss to Gonzaga on a neutral floor is concerning, given that in a rematch in the NCAA tournament, the winner of the first game wins nearly 68 percent of the time, this is a tall (No. 29 in average height, per kenpom.com), experienced (No. 34), deep (No. 58 in bench minutes) team that could make life very difficult for Duke for 40 minutes.
No. 2 seed Duke
Reason: Duke has already beaten Gonzaga
Without intending to underestimate Texas Tech (or Arkansas), the strongest case for Duke to make the Final Four in Coach K's final season is that the Blue Devils are one of just three teams that have defeated the Zags this season and they did so on a neutral floor. From my research, when two teams play just once in the regular season, then face off in a rematch in the NCAA tournament, the winner of the first game wins nearly 68 percent of the time, which is a good trend for the Blue Devils if the two schools meet in the Elite Eight. When they met in Las Vegas in late November, Gonzaga point guard Andrew Nembhard had as many points as turnovers (six), another starter (Julian Strawther) fouled out, and bigs Drew Timme and Anton Watson had four fouls apiece, as Duke's Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams and Wendell Moore Jr. combined for 58 points on a combined 22-for-36 shooting performance.
Duke arguably has as much raw talent as any team in the country. It's what allowed Duke to pull away from Michigan State in the closing minutes of their second-round matchup after the Blue Devils found themselves down by five. Playing against Texas Tech and the country's stingiest defense in the Sweet 16 is unlikely to be a pleasant experience for Duke, but the Red Raiders aren't without flaws on offense — they make less than a third of their 3-pointers and they commit a turnover on 20 percent of their offensive possessions — and their defense allows opponents to shoot a high percentage of their shots from 3-point range, something Duke is more than capable of converting.
No. 1 seed Arizona
Reason: Point guard Kerr Kriisa is back
After suffering an ankle injury in the Pac-12 tournament, Arizona's Kerr Kriisa missed the team's Pac-12 semifinal and championship games, as well as the first round of the NCAA tournament. He didn't start against TCU in the second round but played 27 minutes off the bench and while he was far from the best version of himself — three points, two rebounds, one assist and two turnovers on 1-for-10 3-point shooting — he has three days of rest in between games and for Arizona's sake, hopefully any cobwebs have been dusted off.
Entering the NCAA tournament, Kriisa's injury was arguably the biggest concern for the Wildcats' national title hopes and in their last five games, each of which was a tournament elimination game, they've won despite him either being limited due to injury or not playing at all. If he can return to a form closer to his healthy self, which is a player who's a 34-percent 3-point shooter and who assists on nearly a quarter of the team's made baskets when he's on the floor, then the Wildcats' ceiling should be raised to potentially the second-best team in the field behind Gonzaga.
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No. 5 seed Houston
Reason: Houston is the second-best team in the country, according to predictive metrics
Entering Sunday's second-round action, Houston was ranked No. 2 in the country on kenpom.com, a ranking the Cougars maintained after knocking off Big Ten regular-season co-champion Illinois by 15 (!) points. The only team ranked ahead of them is No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga, which is on the opposite side of the bracket. Houston is even projected to beat No. 1 seed Arizona by one point, according to kenpom.com, and FiveThirtyEight gives the Cougars a 52-percent chance of advancing to the Elite Eight.
Despite Houston being a No. 5 seed, predictive metrics say the Cougars are the best team in their region and the second-best team left in the field, so arguably the most-likely outcome is them making the Final Four, for the second year in a row.
No. 11 seed Michigan
Reason: A veteran guard and an all-tournament-caliber performer
Not only has Michigan now won consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 26, but it has done so with minimal contributions from senior starter DeVante' Jones, who missed the first round with a concussion and who played just 12 minutes in the second round before leaving with an injury. However, Michigan has one of the most experienced players in college basketball in fifth-year senior Eli Brooks, who has played in 158 career games, including 13 in the NCAA tournament. He was a freshman on Michigan's 2018 national runner-up team. Brooks has played 79 of the 80 minutes in Michigan's first two NCAA tournament games this year, scoring 39 points on 14-for-27 shooting.
Then there's 7-foot-1 sophomore Hunter Dickinson, who earned game MVP honors from kenpom.com in each of the Wolverines' NCAA tournament wins after scoring 48 total points with 17 rebounds, five assists, five blocks and three 3-pointers. Dickinson is an all-conference performer in the Big Ten who could be a potential all-tournament selection if Michigan keeps winning, so having potentially the best player on the floor, plus a steady, veteran guard is a good combination for Michigan.
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No. 2 seed Villanova
Reason: Villanova starts two players who were on a national championship team
The only players in the NCAA tournament who have experience playing for a national championship team play for Villanova: Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie and fellow fifth-year senior Jermaine Samuels. The Wildcats typically abide by the "Get old and stay old mantra." In the modern era of Villanova's success, starting with the group that helped win the 2016 national championship, the team typically ranks between 50th and 100th nationally in experience, per kenpom.com, and Gillespie and Samuels were reserves on Villanova's 2018 national title team.
Coach Jay Wright has two national championships to his name and he's got a group that ranks eighth in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency — the kind of balance a championship-winning team usually needs. At roughly 82.6 percent, the Wildcats are on track to have the best free throw shooting season in the history of the sport, which certainly matters in close games. That's about the only statistical category in which Villanova is elite — but, man, is it a good spot to be elite — but the Wildcats are really solid all around, with the only hole in their profile potentially being someone who could give them more size at the five, with Michigan's Hunter Dickinson (and potentially Arizona's gargantuan rotation) looming.
No. 8 seed North Carolina
Reason: North Carolina is playing like a top-four team, since mid-February
Since North Carolina started a six-game winning streak on Feb. 19, which has developed into an 8-1 record in a nine-game stretch, the Tar Heels rank as the No. 4 team in the country, according to advanced analytics website barttorvik.com. Since Feb. 26, when they beat rival NC State, they rank first, as they do among all teams since March 5, when they knocked off another rival, Duke.
So, while North Carolina's seed line says No. 8, the Tar Heels are clearly much more dangerous than that and you only need to look at their 13-point road win in Cameron Indoor Stadium or the 25-point lead they built against No. 1 seed Baylor for proof. Yes, North Carolina's rotation can be dangerously thin, as seen by the team's play after Brady Manek exited the game against Baylor, but its five starters are pretty darn good together. North Carolina has scored at least 93 points in both of its NCAA tournament games this far, making 13 3-pointers at a 37-percent rate against Marquette and 11 of them at a 44-percent clip against Baylor. If they can copy and paste that performance this week, they might look up and find themselves in the Final Four in the first year of coach Hubert Davis' tenure.
No. 4 seed UCLA
Reason: UCLA is the best team left in its region, according to predictive metrics
The second round of the NCAA tournament is over and No. 1 seed Baylor and No. 2 seed Kentucky are nowhere to be found. The No. 3 seed in the East Region, Purdue, has the second-worst defense of any team left in the tournament, one that ranks 89th nationally, per kenpom.com. That leaves No. 4 seed UCLA, ranked No. 8 overall on kenpom.com and four spots higher than Purdue, as the best team left in the region, according to predictive metrics.
This group made the Final Four last season with a rotation of players that have only been bolstered through new additions to the roster, so both the Bruins' prowess and personnel suggest they're more than capable of returning to the sport's final weekend. They're coming off of a 16-point win over No. 5 seed Saint Mary's, which was coming off of a 29-point thrashing of No. 12 seed Indiana.
No. 3 seed Purdue
Reason: The No. 2 offense in the country and its potential for creating matchup nightmares
Four of the five AP first-team All-Americans are no longer dancing, including the potential national player of the year, Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe. That means Purdue's electric sophomore guard Jaden Ivey, a second-team All-American, is on the short list of the best players left in the NCAA tournament and he's arguably the most talented player left in the East Region. He's the engine that makes Purdue's No. 2 offense go, along with great 3-point shooting and the big-man platoon of 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and the cunning play of backup Trevion Williams, who was an AP honorable mention All-American last season.
No. 15 seed Saint Peter's survived Tshiebwe's 30-point, 16-rebound double-double in the first round and forward KC Ndefo had a 17-point, 10-rebound double-double of his own against Murray State, but the Edey-Williams combination could be too much for the Peacocks to handle, given that their only player taller than 6-foot-8 is the seldom-used Oumar Diahame, 6-foot-10. Williams' 22 points on 10-for-13 shooting off the bench propelled Purdue, especially in the first half, against Texas and the Longhorns' top-15 defense, while Ivey hit a pair of monumental 3-pointers late in the game.
Based on personnel, that's not an ideal matchup for a No. 15 seed that's trying to become the first to reach the Elite Eight.
No. 15 seed Saint Peter's
Reason: Defense and free throws
After defeating No. 7 seed Murray State, the defensive efficiency ranking of Saint Peter's, adjusted by kenpom.com for opponent, game locations and dates of the game, ranked No. 27 nationally and No. 13 among the 48 teams left in the field, prior to Sunday's games, just one spot behind Kansas. So while Saint Peter's deserving gets the Cinderella label as a No. 15 seed from the MAAC that's playing in the Sweet 16, the Peacocks' defense is legit.
Their opponents shoot just 44 percent from 2-point range and 29.5 percent from 3-point range, while Saint Peter's blocks nearly 15 percent of its opponents' 2-point attempts. That's a tough matchup for almost any team.
While Saint Peter's struggles greatly on offense (No. 224 in efficiency after Saturday's games), the Peacocks get to the line with regularity. They average 20.7 attempts per game and they took 31 in their win over the Racers in the second round.
When Saint Peter's coach Shaheen Holloway talks about his team's toughness, that can be seen on the floor in the Peacocks' defense and physicality on offense.
No. 1 seed Kansas
Reason: Potentially the easiest path to the Final Four of any team in the Sweet 16
Based on kenpom.com's latest rankings, Kansas' three Midwest Region mates, Providence, Iowa State and Miami, rank No. 33, No. 37 and No. 42 nationally on kenpom.com, making them the 13th, 14th and 15th-highest ranked teams of the 16 remaining, with Saint Peter's bringing up the rear. That gives Kansas potentially the easiest path to the Final Four of any team left. FiveThirtyEight gives the Jayhawks a 57-percent chance of reaching the Final Four, second only to Gonzaga's 65-percent chance, and none of the other three teams in Kansas' region have more than an 18-percent chance, according to the site.
When you consider that one of Kansas' potential Elite Eight opponents, Iowa State, is a team the Jayhawks swept in the regular season, the path is potentially even more manageable.
Kansas' Ochai Agbaji is the only AP first-team All-American left in the Big Dance, giving him at least a case of being the best college basketball player left in the tournament, and raw talent alone could be enough to propel the Jayhawks to the Final Four.
No. 4 seed Providence
Reason: Regardless of the explanation — be it experience, a "clutch gene" or luck — the Friars win. A lot.
In kenpom.com's "luck" metric, which measures the deviation "in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record," Providence ranks No. 1 nationally in the metric, and while each season is its own separate universe in kenpom.com's database that dates back to the 2002, the Friars' luck rating ranks fourth in the site's history, just for reference.
The Friars have been the poster children this season for those age-old debates about topics such as late-game execution, the value of experienced players, and statistical or mythical "luck." They have the sixth-most experienced team, per kenpom.com, with a handful of fifth-year seniors in their rotation.
With five players who average more than nine but less than 14 points per game, Providence's team is arguably greater than the sum of its parts. Think about this: Providence won its first Big East regular-season title ever, yet the Friars didn't have a single player named to the All-Big East firs team. The first team had six players on it, by the way, not just five.
Providence might have positional advantages at both point guard and center over No. 1 seed Kansas, which has a history of not performing up to its lofty seed expectations.
No. 11 seed Iowa State
Reason: Freshman Tyrese Hunter is peaking at the right time
Based on the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI), which considers numerous recruiting services, Iowa State freshman guard Tyrese Hunter was the most talented high school player on the Cyclones' roster, ranking No. 34 nationally. He's almost single-handedly the reason why Iowa State beat No. 6 seed LSU in the first round, after he exploded for a career-high 23 points on 7-for-11 3-point shooting, including several deep 3-pointers late in the game. Even after that performance, he's only a 27.5-percent 3-point shooter on the season and his previous season-high in made 3-pointers was three, a mark he hadn't hit since Jan. 26.
After scoring just 39 total points in six games in December, he has scored in double figures in 14 of Iowa State's 22 games since Jan. 1, and he's reached 10 assists in two of the team's last six games. Playing for a Cyclones team that ranks just No. 158 in offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, Hunter could help his team with even greater consistency, but his high-end potential could be the difference in how far the Cyclones advance. Elite players, especially elite guards, make a world of a difference in March. Hunter might be becoming one of them right before our eyes.
No. 10 seed Miami
Reason: Offensive potential
In two of what are known as the four factors — effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate — Miami is very good on offense. The Hurricanes only turn the ball over on 13.6 percent of their offensive possessions and they have an effective field goal percentage of 53.8 percent, good for 30th nationally. That's a good recipe for a strong offense, which is why they rank 18th nationally in offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com.
Defense (No. 123) and rebounding (No. 319 offensively, No. 265 defensively) aren't strengths of this Miami team, which isn't particularly tall, but maybe there's reason to believe they could simply outscore their opponents en route to a Final Four appearance. FiveThirtyEight gives Miami a 54-percent chance of advancing to the Elite Eight and kenpom.com gives the 'Canes a 49-percent chance, so that game is something of a toss-up. From there, it would only require one upset of No. 1 seed Kansas or No. 4 seed Providence to reach the national semifinals and the guard play of Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong and Charlie Moore (45.8 points per game, combined) is strong enough to potentially contend with any combination of Iowa State, and Kansas or Providence.
