We are less than a month from Selection Sunday and Andy Katz has put together his latest prediction of how the 68-team field will look come March.
First, here's his seed list based on games through Sunday, Feb. 12. Teams with an asterisk are his picks for auto-qualifiers by winning their conference tournament.
- 1. Alabama (1) SEC*
- 2. Purdue (1) Big Ten*
- 3. Houston (1) American*
- 4. Texas (1) Big 12*
- 5. Kansas (2)
- 6. UCLA (2) Pac-12*
- 7. Baylor (2)
- 8. Virginia (2) ACC*
- 9. Arizona (3)
- 10. Tennessee (3)
- 11. Kansas State (3)
- 12. Marquette (3) Big East*
- 13. Indiana (4)
- 14. Gonzaga (4)
- 15. Xavier (4)
- 16. Iowa State (4)
- 17. Creighton (5)
- 18. Miami (5)
- 19. UConn (5)
- 20. Illinois (5)
- 21. TCU (6)
- 22. Saint Mary’s (6) WCC*
- 23. Rutgers (6)
- 24. Northwestern (6)
- 25. Michigan State (7)
- 26. San Diego State (7) MWC*
- 27. Iowa (7)
- 28. Maryland (7)
- 29. Duke (8)
- 30. Missouri (8)
- 31. Oklahoma State (8)
- 32. Arkansas (8)
- 33. Providence (9)
- 34. NC State (9)
- 35. Pitt (9)
- 36. West Virginia (9)
- 37. Auburn (10)
- 38. Florida Atlantic (10) CUSA*
- 39. Texas A&M (10)
- 40. Nevada (10)
- 41. Boise State (11)
- 42. North Carolina (11)
- 43. Memphis (11)
- 44. USC (11)
- 45. Wake Forest (11)
- 46. Clemson (12)
- 47. VCU (12) A10*
- 48. College of Charleston (12) CAA*
- 49. Oral Roberts (12) Summit*
- 50. Southern Miss (12) Sun Belt*
- 51. Drake (13) MVC*
- 52. Liberty (13) ASun*
- 53. Kent State (13) MAC*
- 54. Utah Valley (13) WAC*
- 55. Iona (14) MAAC*
- 56. Yale (14) Ivy*
- 57. Furman (14) Southern*
- 58. UCSB (14) Big West*
- 59. Eastern Washington (15) Big Sky*
- 60. Vermont (15) AE*
- 61. Youngstown State (15) Horizon*
- 62. Colgate (15) Patriot*
- 63. UNC Asheville (16) Big South*
- 64. Alcorn State (16) SWAC*
- 65. Morehead State (16) OVC*
- 66. Howard (16) MEAC*
- 67. TAMU-CC (16) Southland*
- 68. Fairleigh Dickinson (16) NEC*
Let's take a closer look at Katz's projections
Houston's Marcus Sasser.
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Though Alabama began the new year on a 9-0 winning streak, the Tide got a wake-up call in the form of a 93-69 loss to Oklahoma, snapping its undefeated run. Alabama has since bounced back to snag wins against in-conference opponents LSU, Florida and Auburn and charted its largest win of the season against Vanderbilt in a 101-44 victory.
Purdue has dropped two of its last three games including a 64-58 defeat against Northwestern in what could potentially be remembered as the biggest upset of the regular season. The Boilermakers' final five regular-season games are all in-conference and include a rematch against Indiana, who stunned the squad earlier in the month. Player of the year candidate Zach Edey and his team will look to notch some big wins through this last stretch before selections.
Marcus Sasser and the Houston Cougars remain strong and will close out the season against (currently) unranked opponents. Two of these games will be against the only other American Athletic Conference team projected to get a tournament bid, Memphis.
Texas makes its No. 1 seed debut as the squad is surging at the right time. The Longhorns' last 10 games have featured six ranked opponents, and though they went 3-3 against these teams, the Big 12 powerhouse picked up notable wins against TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State and only lost by single digits to Kansas, Tennessee and Iowa State. Texas has four players averaging in double figures, led by guard Marcus Carr with 16.9 points per game, and has found an identity in playing team basketball with a 20-5 record.
Dropped Out
- Mississippi State
- Utah State
- Kentucky
- Oregon
- New Mexico
- Wisconsin
- Arizona State
- Utah
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Conferences with multiple teams in Katz's bracket predictions
| Conference | total teams | teams |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 8 | Virginia, Miami, Duke, NC State, Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson |
| Big 12 | 8 | Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma State, West Virginia |
| Big Ten | 8 | Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, |
| SEC | 6 | Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M |
| Big East | 5 | Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence |
| Pac-12 | 3 | UCLA, Arizona, USC |
| MWC | 3 | San Diego State, Nevada, Boise State |
| AAC | 2 | Houston, Memphis |
| WCC | 2 | Gonzaga, Saint Mary's |
Though oriented differently, the same nine conferences with the most tournament bids in Katz's first two bracket predictions are featured again here. There is, however, a three-way tie at the top in this one as the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten all have eight projected teams.
His bracket, broken down by regions:
| Seed | Midwest | west | South | East |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | Texas | Purdue | Houston |
| 16 | TAMUCC/FDU | UNC Asheville | Morehead State/Howard | Alcorn State |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | Missouri | Duke | Arkansas |
| 9 | NC State | Pitt | Providence | West Virginia |
| 5 | Creighton | Illinois | Miami | UConn |
| 12 | Oral Roberts | Charleston | Southern Miss | VCU |
| 4 | Iowa State | Gonzaga | Xavier | Indiana |
| 13 | Drake | Utah Valley | Kent State | Liberty |
| 6 | Saint Mary’s | TCU | Rutgers | Northwestern |
| 11 | Boise State | USC/Clemson | North Carolina | Memphis/Wake Forest |
| 3 | Arizona | Marquette | Tennessee | Kansas State |
| 14 | UCSB | Yale | Iona | Furman |
| 7 | Iowa | San Diego State | Michigan State | Maryland |
| 10 | Nevada | Texas A&M | Florida Atlantic | Auburn |
| 2 | Baylor | UCLA | Kansas | Virginia |
| 15 | Colgate | Eastern Washington | Youngstown State | Vermont |
