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Wayne Staats | NCAA.com | February 16, 2023

2023 March Madness bracket preview: Top 16 reveal and a deep history of how those seeds do

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The 2023 March Madness men's basketball tournament is fast approaching. Before the final, official selections are announced on Sunday, March 12, the DI Men's Basketball Committee shares its top 16 seeds this Saturday, Feb. 18.

A lot can change from this weekend up to selections, but Saturday's show will give a look into what the committee thinks as of Feb. 18. Here's what you need to know about the top-16 reveal.

Top 16 reveal date, time, TV channel for the 2023 NCAA tournament

The in-season top 16 will be announced at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 18, on CBS. During the show, the DI Men's Basketball Committee will share its top four teams in each region as they stand on Feb. 18.

In-season top 16: Where do they end up?

There are instances of big shakeups by the time of Selection Sunday. Though most teams either remained the same seed or moved up or down only a seed or two, there have been notable movers.

The 2017-18 Oklahoma team had been a No. 4 seed in the in-season top 16 announcement, but OU went on a 4-10 slide going into the NCAA tournament โ€” and got a No. 10 seed. The Sooners lost to Rhode Island in the first round.

The 2018-19 season saw the final five teams in the in-season top 16 all drop on the seed lines, including Nevada and Louisville falling from No. 4 to No. 7 seeds. All five of these teams lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

In 2020-21, five teams dropped outside the top 16 overall list โ€” including Oklahoma (fell to a No. 8 seed) and Missouri (fell to a No. 9 seed). They met each other in the first round, with Oklahoma winning 72-68.

Last season, 15 of the 16 teams in the reveal remained one of the top 16 overall seeds, though there was some movement on the seed lines. Only Texas, the last team at No. 16 overall โ€” and thus a No. 4 seed โ€” fell out of a top-4 seed. The Longhorns ended up a No. 6 seed.

Year Team In-season seed
(overall)
NCAAT seed
(overall)
Change
(in seed)
2017 Villanova 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
2017 Kansas 1 (2) 1 (2) 0
2017 Baylor 1 (3) 3 (12) Down 2
2017 Gonzaga 1 (4) 1 (4) 0
2017 North Carolina 2 (5) 1 (3) Up 1
2017 Florida State 2 (6) 3 (10) Down 1
2017 Louisville 2 (7) 2 (8) 0
2017 Oregon 2 (8) 3 (9) Down 1
2017 Arizona 3 (9) 2 (6) Up 1
2017 Virginia 3 (10) 5 (17) Down 2
2017 Florida 3 (11) 4 (14) Down 1
2017 Kentucky 3 (12) 2 (5) Up 1
2017 Butler 4 (13) 4 (13) 0
2017 West Virginia 4 (14) 4 (16) 0
2017 UCLA 4 (15) 3 (11) Up 1
2017 Duke 4 (16) 2 (7) Up 2
2018 Virginia 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
2018 Villanova 1 (2) 1 (2) 0
2018 Xavier 1 (3) 1 (4) 0
2018 Purdue 1 (4) 2 (7) Down 1
2018 Auburn 2 (5) 4 (13) Down 2
2018 Kansas 2 (6) 1 (3) Up 1
2018 Duke 2 (7) 2 (6) 0
2018 Cincinnati 2 (8) 2 (8) 0
2018 Clemson 3 (9) 5 (19) Down 2
2018  Texas Tech 3 (10) 3 (12) 0
2018 Michigan State 3 (11) 3 (9) 0
2018 North Carolina 3 (12) 2 (5) Up 1
2018 Tennessee 4 (13) 3 (10) Up 1
2018 Ohio State 4 (14) 5 (20) Down 1
2018 Arizona 4 (15) 4 (16) 0
2018 Oklahoma 4 (16) 10 (40) Down 6
2019 Duke 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
2019 Tennessee 1 (2) 2 (5) Down 1
2019 Virginia 1 (3) 1 (2) 0
2019 Gonzaga 1 (4) 1 (4) 0
2019 Kentucky 2 (5) 2 (7) 0
2019 Michigan 2 (6) 2 (8) 0
2019 North Carolina 2 (7) 1 (3) Up 1
2019 Michigan State 2 (8) 2 (6) 0
2019 Purdue 3 (9) 3 (12) 0
2019 Kansas 3 (10) 4 (13) Down 1
2019 Houston 3 (11) 3 (9) 0
2019 Marquette 3 (12) 5 (17) Down 2
2019 Iowa State 4 (13) 6 (24) Down 2
2019 Nevada 4 (14) 7 (26) Down 3
2019 Louisville 4 (15) 7 (25) Down 3
2019 Wisconsin 4 (16) 5 (19) Down 1
2021 Gonzaga 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
2021 Baylor 1 (2) 1 (2) 0
2021 Michigan 1 (3) 1 (4) 0
2021 Ohio State 1 (4) 2 (6) Down 1
2021 Illinois 2 (5) 1 (3) Up 1
2021 Villanova 2 (6) 5 (18) Down 3
2021 Alabama 2 (7) 2 (5) 0
2021 Houston 2 (8) 2 (8) 0
2021 Virginia 3 (9) 4 (16) Down 1
2021 West Virginia 3 (10) 3 (10) 0
2021 Tennessee 3 (11) 5 (19) Down 2
2021 Oklahoma 3 (12) 8 (32) Down 5
2021 Iowa 4 (13) 2 (7) Up 2
2021 Texas Tech 4 (14) 6 (22) Down 2
2021 Texas 4 (15) 3 (11) Up 1
2021 Missouri 4 (16) 9 (33) Down 5
2022 Gonzaga 1 (1) 1 (1) 0
2022 Auburn 1 (2) 2 (5) Down 1
2022 Arizona 1 (3) 1 (2) 0
2022 Kansas 1 (4) 1 (3) 0
2022 Baylor 2 (5) 1 (4) Up 1
2022 Kentucky 2 (6) 2 (6) 0
2022 Purdue 2 (7) 3 (11) Down 1
2022 Duke 2 (8) 2 (8) 0
2022 Villanova 3 (9) 2 (7) Up 1
2022 Texas Tech 3 (10) 3 (12) 0
2022 Tennessee 3 (11) 3 (10) 0
2022 Illinois 3 (12) 4 (14) Down 1
2022 Wisconsin 4 (13) 3 (9) Up 1
2022 UCLA 4 (14) 4 (13) 0
2022 Providence 4 (15) 4 (15) 0
2022 Texas 4 (16) 6 (23) Down 2

But what about teams that started outside the in-season top 16 and yet ended up getting a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament?

Through the first handful of years of the in-season reveal, there have been one (2017), three (2018), five (2019), five (2021) and one (2022) teams to move into a top-four seed after missing the in-season top 16 list.

Of these 15 teams, 10 ended up getting a No. 4 seed. The other five teams earned a No. 3 seed. In terms of the overall rank, 2021 Arkansas moved up the most โ€” all the way to the No. 9 overall seed (so the highest No. 3 seed). In 2019, Texas Tech came from outside the top 16 to eventually earn No. 10 on the overall seed list. Texas Tech, of course, would go on to the NCAA tournament championship game.

For the most part, these late risers have done well in the NCAA tournament. Of the 15, two reached the national championship game and 10 advanced to at least the Sweet 16. Only three lost in the first round.

Arkansas has had a recent run of rising late. In both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, the Razorbacks climbed to a top-4 seed and made the Elite Eight.

Year Team NCAAT seed (overall) NCAAT result
2017 West Virginia 4 (15) Sweet 16
2018 Michigan 3 (11) Runner-up
2018 Wichita State 4 (14) First Round
2018 Gonzaga 4 (15) Sweet 16
2019 Texas Tech 3 (10) Runner-up
2019 LSU 3 (11) Sweet 16
2019 Florida State 4 (14) Sweet 16
2019 Kansas State 4 (15) First Round
2019 Virginia Tech 4 (16) Sweet 16
2021 Arkansas 3 (9) Elite Eight
2021 Kansas 3 (12) Second Round
2021 Florida State 4 (13) Sweet 16
2021 Purdue 4 (14) First Round
2021 Oklahoma State 4 (15) Second Round
2022 Arkansas 4 (16) Elite Eight

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