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Alberto Camargo | | February 18, 2023

2023 March Madness men's bracket predictions by Andy Katz, following the top 16 reveal

Committee chairman Chris Reynolds talks top-16 ranking

With the DI Men's Basketball Committee revealing its current top 16 teams in men's hoops, NCAA Digital's Andy Katz has updated his March Madness men's bracket projections only three weeks from Selection Sunday. 

Here is a look at Katz's field of 68 teams, listed in order of overall seed with the regional seeds in parentheses. Those with an asterisk denote automatic qualifiers from each conference tournament.

  1. Alabama (1) SEC*
  2. Houston (1) AAC*
  3. Purdue (1) Big Ten*
  4. Kansas (1) Big 12
  5. Texas (2) Big 12*
  6. Arizona (2) Pac-12
  7. Baylor (2) Big 12
  8. UCLA (2) Pac-12*
  9. Tennessee (3) SEC 
  10. Virginia (3) ACC* 
  11. Iowa State (3) Big 12
  12. Kansas State (3) Big 12
  13. Indiana (4) Big Ten
  14. Marquette (4) Big East*
  15. Gonzaga (4) WCC
  16. Xavier (4) Big East
  17. Creighton (5) Big East
  18. Miami (Fla.) (5) ACC
  19. Saint Mary’s (5) WCC*
  20. UConn (5) Big East
  21. Northwestern (6) Big Ten
  22. Maryland (6) Big Ten
  23. Iowa (6) Big Ten
  24. Illinois (6) Big Ten
  25. TCU (7) Big 12 
  26. Michigan State (7) Big Ten
  27. San Diego State (7) MWC*
  28. Duke (7) ACC
  29. Auburn (8) SEC
  30. Arkansas (8) SEC
  31. Pitt (8) ACC
  32. Rutgers (8) Big Ten
  33. Missouri (9) SEC
  34. Providence (9) Big East
  35. NC State (9) ACC
  36. Oklahoma State (9) Big 12
  37. Texas A&M (10) SEC
  38. Nevada (10) MWC
  39. Boise State (10) MWC
  40. Kentucky (10) SEC
  41. West Virginia (11) Big 12
  42. Memphis (11) AAC
  43. Wisconsin (11) Big Ten
  44. USC (11) Pac-12
  45. Clemson (11) ACC
  46. Florida Atlantic (11) CUSA* 
  47. VCU (12) A10*
  48. Charleston (12) CAA*
  49. Oral Roberts (12)  Summit*
  50. Southern Miss (12) Sun Belt*
  51. Drake (13) MVC*
  52. Kent State (13) MAC*
  53. Utah Valley (13) WAC*
  54. Iona (13) MAAC*
  55. Yale (14) Ivy*
  56. UCSB (14) Big West*
  57. Kennesaw State (14) ASUN*
  58. Eastern Washington (14) Big Sky*
  59. Vermont (15) AE*
  60. Youngstown State (15) Horizon*
  61. Colgate (15) Patriot*
  62. UNC Asheville (15) Big South*
  63. Samford (16) Southern*
  64. Alcorn State (16) SWAC*
  65. Morehead State (16) OVC*
  66. Howard (16) MEAC*
  67. TAMU CC (16) Southland*
  68. FDU (16) NEC*
Kansas' Gradey Dick is averaging 14.7 points per game for Kansas, including 21 points against Texas on Feb. 6.Kansas' Gradey Dick is averaging 14.7 points per game for Kansas, including 21 points against Texas on Feb. 6.

Three of the top four overall seeds remain the same from Katz's predictions earlier this week, though the order has moved slightly. The committee has placed Houston in the second overall seed over Purdue, while both Katz and the committee agree that Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed in the field of 68.

MEN'S TOURNAMENT: 2023 March Madness schedule, dates, times

Of course, Alabama's recent loss to Tennessee is still fresh in the mind of many around college hoops, but the Crimson Tide retains the top spot thanks to its 12-0 start to SEC play with wins over Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State (twice) as well as non-conference victories against Michigan State, North Carolina and fellow top seed Houston.

Houston still has two meetings remaining with the only other AAC team in Katz's bracket predictions in Memphis, one coming on Sunday and the second on the final day of the regular season. The Cougars avenged their loss to Temple in their next meeting, and the only other blemish on their record was the loss to top overall seed Alabama

Purdue is still a top seed in the eyes of the committee, even after a recent string of struggles it has had in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers have lost three of their last four outings, albeit against three conference opponents also projected to reach the NCAA tournament. The final four games of Purdue's regular season will be crucial not just for seeding in the Big Ten tournament, but also to regain confidence ahead of the postseason.

The Big 12 has been a deep conference all season, and it's Kansas that has been rewarded with a No. 1 seed over the likes of Texas and Baylor. The Jayhawks have overcome a three-game skid of their own in January to win five of their last six games including wins over Kentucky, Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma State. A Saturday meeting with Baylor and upcoming clashes with TCU, West Virginia and Texas certainly has the chance to change the makeup of the Big 12 before the postseason.

First 4 out

  • North Carolina 
  • Mississippi State
  • New Mexico
  • Oregon

TOP 16 REVEAL: Andy Katz talks top 16 with DI Men's Basketball Committee chair Chris Reynolds

Conferences with multiple teams in Katz's bracket predictions

conference total teams teams
Big Ten 9 Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Big 12 8 Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
SEC 7 Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky
ACC 6 Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Duke, Pitt, NC State, Clemson
Big East 5 Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence
Pac-12 3 Arizona, UCLA, Southern Cal
MWC 3 San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada
AAC 2 Houston, Memphis
WCC 2 Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

The ACC has seen two teams drop out of the 68-team field, compared to Katz's previous predictions. The Big Ten increased by one to lead the pack, but it's the same nine conferences that are projected to have multiple representatives in the tournament.

Here is Katz's bracket, broken down by regions and who each team would square off with.

Seed South west midwest east
1 Alabama Kansas Houston Purdue
16 TAMUCC/FDU Alcorn State Samford Morehead State/Howard
8 Pitt Rutgers Auburn Arkansas
9 Oklahoma State Missouri NC State Providence
5 Creighton UConn Miami (Fla.) Saint Mary's
12 Oral Roberts Charleston Memphis/Wisconsin Southern Miss
4 Indiana Gonzaga Xavier Marquette
13 Kent State Utah Valley Drake Iona
6 Maryland Iowa Illinois Northwestern
11 West Virginia FAU Southern Cal/Clemson VCU
3 Virginia Kansas State Tennessee Iowa State
14 Yale UCSB Kennesaw State Eastern Washington
7 Michigan State TCU Duke San Diego State
10 Boise State Nevada Texas A&M Kentucky
2 Baylor Arizona Texas UCLA
15 Youngstown State UNC Asheville Colgate Vermont

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