basketball-men-d1 flag

Wayne Staats | NCAA.com | March 13, 2023

Fans don't see a clear March Madness men's favorite this year — at least so far — according to bracket pick data

The longest perfect March Madness bracket ever (we think)

Things can change until the first round begins on Thursday as people complete their brackets, but early data suggests Men's Bracket Challenge Game players are split when picking a national champion.

No one stands out from the pack — yet — when it comes to predicting which team will cut down the nets. Here's what we know, at least as of early Monday afternoon:

  • Houston and Alabama are the two favorites, with both coming in better than 15 percent of brackets.
  • Seven teams are picked as national champions on at least 5 percent of brackets — only five teams crossed that threshold last year
  • Defending national champion Kansas is picked to repeat on nearly 12 percent of MBCG brackets — the third-highest among champion picks

PLAY TO WIN: Play the 2023 Men's Bracket Challenge Game

For comparison, Gonzaga was the top pick the last two seasons at 30.26 percent (2022) and 38.82 (2021), with the Bulldogs entering the 2021 tournament undefeated. But the run of a clear favorite stretches back even further than that, as Zion Williamson and Duke were the champ pick on 39.12 percent of MBCG brackets in 2019.

If these numbers stay around this range, this will be the year with the least-picked most popular champ since North Carolina at 14.55 percent in 2017. Of course, UNC won it all that year, so it's a good reminder that how popular — or unpopular — a top pick is doesn't mean everything. After all, 2014 national champion UConn was the title winner on only .023 percent of MBCG brackets.

Here's a look at recent data when it comes to the most-popular title winner and the eventual national champion:

Year Most-picked champ Actual champ
2022 Gonzaga (30.26) Kansas (7.87)
2021 Gonzaga (38.82) Baylor (8.43)
2019 Duke (39.12) Virginia (5.86)
2018 Villanova (17.52) Villanova (17.52)
2017 North Carolina (14.55) North Carolina (14.55)
2016 Kansas (24.87) Villanova (2.36)
2015 Kentucky (46.57) Duke (10.54)
2014 Florida (26.04) UConn (0.23)

2023 MARCH MADNESS: Men's NCAA tournament schedule, dates, times

Everything you need to know about the 2023 HBCU All-Star game in men's basketball

The second annual HBCU All-Star basketball game is on Sunday, April 2, during Final Four weekend 2023 in Houston. The top HBCU players in the country will get to showcase their skills on a national stage.
READ MORE

NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee names game officials for 2023 Men's Final Four

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee has approved the 11 game officials recommended by Chris Rastatter, the national coordinator of officiating, to work Saturday’s two national semifinal games and Monday’s national championship game.
READ MORE

Fittingly, an atypical Final Four group follows a most unusual March Madness

A most irregular season has given birth to a most unconventional Final Four, intriguing because of not only who will show up in Houston, but who won’t.
READ MORE
Presented by

Subscribe To Email Updates

Enter your information to receive emails about offers, promotions from NCAA.com and our partners