When looking for upset picks in the first round of the 2023 NCAA men's tournament, No. 11 Providence, No. 12 VCU and No. 13 Furman were among the most popular at each of their seed lines for Men's Bracket Challenge Game players. We defined upset as teams five seeds lower or worse — so for the first round that means starting with No. 11 vs. No. 6.
Here's how the numbers break down for each seed:
16 vs. 1
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 Kansas | 3.37 |
| No. 16 Texas A&M-CC vs. No. 1 Alabama | 2.58 |
| No. 16 FDU vs. No. 1 Purdue | 2.36 |
| No. 16 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 1 Houston | 2.14 |
Nothing all too notable here, as these numbers are rather similar to 2022's. However, it's interesting to note that the most-picked 16 seed is the one going against the defending champion. Oddly enough, the same thing happened last year, when Norfolk State was the most popular 16 facing reigning champion Baylor.
15 vs. 2
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 15 Colgate vs. No. 2 Texas | 7.41 |
| No. 15 Vermont vs. No. 2 Marquette | 5.60 |
| No. 15 UNC Asheville vs. No. 2 UCLA | 4.42 |
| No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 2 Arizona | 4.13 |
Colgate stands out here, as the Raiders' percentage is better than the most-picked 15 last year (Jacksonville State at 4.41 vs. Auburn). This is Colgate's fourth consecutive tournament appearance, with the program getting a 14 or 15 each time. The Raiders are 0-3 in this streak of tournament bids, though they lost to No. 3 Wisconsin by only 7 last year.
Oh, and if you're wondering about where Saint Peter's landed, the Peacocks were picked to beat No. 2 Kentucky on only 3 percent of MBCG brackets — the third-lowest mark for No. 15 seeds. And we all know what happened next.
14 vs. 3
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 14 UCSB vs. No. 3 Baylor | 10.35 |
| No. 14 Montana State vs. No. 3 Kansas State | 10.17 |
| No. 14 Kennesaw State vs. No. 3 Xavier | 7.39 |
| No. 14 Grand Canyon vs. No. 3 Gonzaga | 4.67 |
Last season, Colgate led the 14 seeds at nearly 14 percent, so the most-popular 14 isn't as well-liked this year. No 14 seed won in last year's tournament, but Abilene Christian upset Texas in 2021.
13 vs. 4
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 13 Furman vs. No. 4 Virginia | 25.62 |
| No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 4 Indiana | 19.02 |
| No. 13 Louisiana vs. No. 4 Tennessee | 13.23 |
| No. 13 Iona vs. No. 4 UConn | 11.31 |
Here's where you'll see a noticeable rise in upset selections. All four 13 seeds are getting at least 10 percent, though none are reaching last year's South Dakota State (38.36 percent).
No 13 seed came away with a win last year, but there had been three consecutive NCAA tournaments with a winner: Buffalo and Marshall in 2018, UC Irvine in 2019 and Ohio and North Texas in 2021.
12 vs. 5
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's | 37.57 |
| No. 12 Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego State | 33.33 |
| No. 12 Oral Roberts vs. No. 5 Duke | 25.22 |
| No. 12 Drake vs. No. 5 Miami (Fla.) | 23.04 |
Here we go. Last March Madness, "only" two No. 12 seeds topped 20 percent. This time, all four cross that mark. Two are even in the 30s, led by VCU at 37.57 percent. These four teams know how to win, too, as they average 28.75 wins between them.
In a fun twist, the 12 seeds went 2-2 last year in the first round, but the wins came against the two least-picked 12s (New Mexico State at Richmond).
11 vs. 6
| Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
|---|---|
| No. 11 Providence vs. No. 6 Kentucky | 34.58 |
| No. 11 Pitt vs. No. 6 Iowa State | 33.77 |
| No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 Creighton | 30.14 |
| No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU | 15.18 |
The 11s are looking very similar to the 12s. Last year, two 11 seeds were at the 50-percent marker: Michigan and Virginia Tech. In the end, Michigan advanced, as did Iowa State (28.12 percent to beat LSU). Remember, the Pitt and Arizona State selections could also come from people who thought Mississippi State and Nevada would win in the First Four but didn't change their picks before brackets locked.
Historically, No. 11s are where Cinderella can be found in the Final Four — 2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA have even gone from the First Four to the Final Four.
