The 12-5 upset is one of the most popular March Madness picks each year — and for good reason. It's happened quite a few times since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. In 2025, both McNeese and Colorado St. won as No. 12 seeds.
Here's everything you need to know about 12 seeds vs. 5 seeds in March Madness.
History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 57 upsets by No. 12 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2025, the lower seed was 55-101, equating to a 35.26 win percentage.
Here are all of the times a 12 seed has knocked off a 5 seed.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | McNeese def. Clemson | 69-67 |
| 2025 | Colorado St. def. Memphis | 78-70 |
| 2024 | Grand Canyon def. Saint Mary's | 75-66 |
| 2024 | James Madison def. Wisconsin | 72-61 |
| 2022 | New Mexico State def. UConn | 70-63 |
| 2022 | Richmond def. Iowa | 67-63 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2009 | Western Kentucky def. Illinois | 76-72 |
| 2009 | Arizona def. Utah | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Wisconsin def. Florida State | 61-59 (OT) |
| 2008 | Western Kentucky def. Drake | 101-99 (OT) |
| 2008 | Villanova def. Clemson | 75-69 |
| 2006 | Texas A&M def. Syracuse | 66-58 |
| 2006 | Montana def. Nevada | 87-79 |
| 2005 | Milwaukee def. Alabama | 83-73 |
| 2004 | Pacific def. Providence | 66-58 |
| 2004 | Manhattan def. Florida | 75-60 |
| 2003 | Butler def. Mississippi State | 47-46 |
| 2002 | Creighton def. Florida | 83-82 (2OT) |
| 2002 | Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) | 93-80 |
| 2002 | Tulsa def. Marquette | 71-69 |
| 2001 | Gonzaga def. Virginia | 86-85 |
| 2001 | Utah State def. Ohio State | 77-68 (OT) |
| 1999 | Missouri State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1999 | Detroit def. UCLA | 56-53 |
| 1998 | Florida State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1997 | College of Charleston def. Maryland | 75-66 |
| 1996 | Arkansas def. Penn State | 86-80 |
| 1996 | Drexel def. Memphis | 75-63 |
| 1995 | Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona | 71-62 |
| 1994 | Tulsa def. UCLA | 112-102 |
| 1994 | UW-Green Bay def. California | 61-57 |
| 1993 | George Washington def. New Mexico | 82-68 |
| 1992 | New Mexico State def. DePaul | 81-73 |
| 1991 | Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State | 76-56 |
| 1990 | Ball State def. Oregon State | 54-53 |
| 1990 | Dayton def. Illinois | 88-86 |
| 1989 | DePaul def. Memphis State | 66-63 |
| 1987 | Wyoming def. Virginia | 64-60 |
| 1986 | DePaul def. Virginia | 72-68 |
| 1985 | Kentucky def. Washington | 66-58 |
Some more tidbits:
- In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one first round game. The only exceptions came in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2023.
- In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). The 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.
- Utah State, who has been the No. 12 seed a record five times, is only 1-4 against No. 5 seeds. Its lone win came in 2001 against Ohio State.
How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-three No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 323-123 record all-time.
Here are all of the times a 13 seed has upset a 4.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Yale def. Auburn | 78-76 |
| 2023 | Furman def. Virginia | 68-67 |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
Recent highlights of 12-5 upsets
Here are some highlights from the 12-5 upsets that have happened lately.
McNeese took down Clemson in 2025.
Grand Canyon defeated Saint Mary's in 2024.
Richmond beat Iowa in 2022:
New Mexico State defeated UConn in 2022:
Oregon State topped Tennessee by 14 points in 2021:
Murray State's Ja Morant joined exclusive company in 2019, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the No. 12 Racers took down No. 5 Marquette, 83-64.
Liberty, fresh off an ASUN championship, edged Mississippi State in another 2019 12-5 game.
Oregon also won big in the opening round of 2019, dismantling Wisconsin 72-54 before reaching the Sweet 16.
Little Rock shocked Purdue in 2016, eking out a 79-75 win.
