In the past seven years, no bracket in the Capital One Bracket Challenge Game has ever won without predicting the Final Four perfectly.
That could change this year.
Three brackets are tied for first place heading into the Final Four. Two of those picked a perfect Final Four, and have Kansas winning the title. The third went 3-for-4 in the semifinals, but has Villanova as its champion.
Here’s how past BCG winners have fared in each round:
Notice that those three brackets only cover two of the Final Four teams. What about Loyola Chicago and Michigan?
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There are two brackets in the top 10 who could win if Loyola takes the title. But history is not on their side. Only three 11 seeds had made the Final Four before the Ramblers, and none advanced to the championship game.
Only one of the top 25 brackets has Michigan winning the title.
Here's which bracket will win in each of the eight remaining scenarios:
| Championship game | Winning bracket | Current place | Current points | Max points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Chicago beats Villanova | Bueller | T4 | 98 | 162 |
| Loyola Chicago beats Kansas | O.T.F / Giani Garcia | T6 | 96 | 160 |
| Michigan beats Villanova | Team Bellissimo | T6 | 96 | 160 |
| Michigan beats Kansas | Ethanhdkshsish / Wayne's Winner | T26 | 92 | 156 |
| Villanova beats Loyola Chicago | Ayden Thuemler | T73 | 90 | 154 |
| Villanova beats Michigan | Che 3 | T1 | 99 | 163 |
| Kansas beats Loyola Chicao | RHoshina | T1 | 99 | 163 |
| Kansas beats Michigan | stirskull | T1 | 99 | 163 |
In half of these scenarios, this year’s champion will have the fewest total points since 2011’s winner.
That 2011 tournament was one of the craziest in recent memory, with a Final Four consisting of a 3 seed, 4 seed, 8 seed, and 11 seed. That is the highest total seed value for a Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
For as hectic as this year’s tournament has been (UMBC’s historic upset seems like eons ago), the total Final Four seed value is just 16, which would put it at sixth all time.
| Rank | Year | Total seed value | Teams | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2011 | 26 | (11) VCU, (8) Butler, (4) Kentucky, (3) UConn | UConn |
| 2 | 2000 | 22 | (8) Wisconsin, (8) UNC, (5) Florida, (1) Michigan St | Michigan St |
| 3 | 2006 | 20 | (11) George Mason, (4) LSU, (3) Florida, (2) UCLA | Florida |
| T4 | 2013 | 18 | (9) Wichita St, (4) Michigan, (4) Syracuse, (1) Louisville | Louisville* |
| T4 | 2014 | 18 | (8) Kentucky, (7) UConn, (2) Wisconsin, (1) Florida | UConn |
| 6 | 2018 | 16 | (11) Loyola Chicago, (3) Michigan, (1) Villanova, (1) Kansas | TBD |
| T7 | 1986 | 15 | (11) LSU, (2) Louisville, (1) Duke, (1) Kansas | Louisville |
| T7 | 2016 | 15 | (10) Syracuse, (2) Villanova, (2) Oklahoma, (1) UNC | UNC |
| T9 | 1992 | 13 | (6) Michigan, (4) Cincinnati, (2) Indiana, (1) Duke | Duke |
| T9 | 2010 | 13 | (5) Butler, (5) Michigan St, (2) West Virginia, (1) Duke | Duke |
