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Daniel Wilco | | February 2, 2021

How No. 14 seeds do in March Madness

Watch full game: Georgia State upsets Baylor in 2015 first round on Hunter's last-second dagger

*Note: All data is from the 1985 tournament to the present.

For 18 of the 35 NCAA tournaments since the NCAA tournament field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed. In the past three tournaments, No. 14 seeds went winless in their opening-round games, which prior to 2017, hadn't happened since 2012. From 2013 to 2016, at least one No. 14 seed advanced to the second round.

The last No. 14 seed to pull off an opening-round upset came in 2016 when Stephen F. Austin, thanks to Thomas Walkup's 33 points, defeated No. 3 West Virginia, 70-56.

First Round: Stephen F. Austin upsets West Virginia
The 14 seed's first-round record is still just 21-119, but the likelihood of an upset is still higher than a No. 15 or No. 16 seed winning against a No. 2 or No. 1 seed, respectively.

Only two No. 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round, and college basketball fans were treated to a big Cinderella story in 1986 when Cleveland State upset Indiana, 83-79, in the first round and then Saint Joseph's in the second round 75-69.

Cleveland State’s run in 1986 was special, but Chattanooga’s race to the Sweet 16 in 1997 did prove to be a bit more exciting. The Mocs pulled out a three-point win over third-seeded Georgia in the first round, 73-70. With the momentum in the second round, Chattanooga stormed past Illinois and into the Sweet 16 but lost to 10th-seeded Providence by six points.

No. 14 seeds are 11-9 in matches decided by 3 points or less. Before SFA, the last two No. 14-seed upsets — Georgia State against Baylor and UAB against Iowa State in 2015 — were both decided by one point.

In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, No. 14 seed Yale came the closest to advancing to the second round. The Bulldogs lost to No. 3 seed LSU 79-74.

The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA's win in 2016 and Ohio's 2010 win against Georgetown. Armon Bassett scored 32 points for the Bobcats and DJ Cooper added 23 to shock the Hoyas.

College basketball rankings: Even unranked teams find success in the NCAA tournament

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 — its modern format — only four of 35 national champions were unranked to start the season. That’s about one in every nine years.

Only .025 percent predicted the 2021 Final Four teams in the Bracket Challenge Game

UCLA's upset of No. 1 Michigan in the Elite Eight turned what could have been a record-high number of perfect picks into a tiny number that went 4-for-4.

A huge majority of NCAA brackets have a No. 1 seed winning the 2021 championship

Here is how many brackets predicted each seed to win the national championship, from Gonzaga and the No. 1 seeds through Drexel and the rest of the No. 16 seeds.
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