Daniel Wilco | NCAA.com | February 8, 2021

Do conference tournaments predict national championships?

De’Andre Hunter’s clutch 2019 title game 3-pointer, from every angle

For many schools, conference tournaments are everything. Those few games in March make all the difference between a team having a chance to live out its NCAA tournament dreams and watching it on TV like everyone else.

For other powerhouse teams, conference tournaments mean little besides staying fresh for the Big Dance, improving tournament seeding, and maybe taking some pride points by hoisting the conference trophy.

Or do they?

Is a team's performance in the single-elimination conference tournament a good predictor of how it will do on the biggest stage? And when you fill out your bracket, should you be putting a little more faith in teams that performed well the week or two prior?

Let's take a look at each national champion in the last 26 years and see how they did in conference tournament play.

Year	School	Conference result
2019	Virginia	Lost, ACC semifinals
2018	Villanova	Won Big East
2017	North Carolina	Lost, ACC semifinals
2016	Villanova	Lost, Big East finals
2015	Duke	Lost, ACC semifinals
2014	UConn	Lost, AAC finals
2013	Louisville*	Won Big East
2012	Kentucky	Lost, SEC finals
2011	UConn	Won Big East
2010	Duke	Won ACC
2009	North Carolina	Lost, ACC semifinals
2008	Kansas	Won Big 12
2007	Florida	Won SEC
2006	Florida	Won SEC
2005	North Carolina	Lost, ACC semifinals
2004	UConn	Won Big East
2003	Syracuse	Lost, Big East semifinals
2002	Maryland	Lost, ACC semifinals
2001	Duke	Won ACC
2000	Michigan State	Won Big Ten
1999	UConn	Won Big East
1998	Kentucky	Won SEC
1997	Arizona	No tournament
1996	Kentucky	Lost, SEC finals
1995	UCLA	No tournament
1994	Arkansas	Lost, SEC semifinals

*Louisville's participation in the 2013 NCAA Tournament was vacated

There you have it. Now let's dig into the numbers and see what it all means:

From 1998-2011, it was very smart to put your faith in teams that performed in the conference tournament. Of the 14 national champions in that time, all but four went the distance in their conference tournaments.
Since then, things have really turned around. Five of the last six champions all fell in their conference tournaments.
Overall in this 26-year span, 12 of the 24 participating national champions were also conference tournament champions.
What about just reaching the finals in your conference? Only seven of the 24 national champions since 1993 that participated in a conference tournament were bounced prior to the championship game.
But no team since 1993 has fallen short of the semifinals, so be wary of a team that is upset early on.
North Carolina doesn't sweat ACC tournament losses at all: In the Tar Heels' four national championship seasons since 1993 (26 seasons ago), they have zero conference tournament titles and only reached the ACC tournament final once.
Duke, on the other hand, has won the ACC tournament in three of its last four national championship years, with only its most recent national championship featuring a loss in the ACC tournament.

So when you fill out your brackets, certainly take note of conference-tournament performance, but don't feel pressured to pick your champion based off of who looked strongest against conference foes. At the same time, be careful riding teams that don't at least make a deep run. If a team loses in the semifinals, it's playing against long odds. If it falls in the quarters or sooner, it would have to make history.

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