Wayne Staats | NCAA.com | April 1, 2021 Only .025 percent of NCAA brackets predicted the 2021 Final Four teams in the Bracket Challenge Game Tracing the NCAA bracket from 1851 London, through 1977 Staten Island, to today Share UCLA's upset of No. 1 Michigan in the Elite Eight turned what could have been a record-high number of 4-for-4 Final Four picks in the Bracket Challenge Game into another year of rarely predicted perfection. Only .025 percent of BCG brackets correctly predicted all of the Final Four teams this year, highlighting how difficult it can be when even three of the four teams are a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. ESPN had a similar result of nearly 0.02 percent. Here's the percentage breakdown for BCG brackets: Correct Final Four picks Percent of BCG brackets 0 15.61 1 37.51 2 34.20 3 12.65 4 0.025 Though undefeated Gonzaga, No. 1 seed Baylor and No. 2 Houston are in the Final Four, UCLA is only the fifth No. 11 seed to make the national semifinals. The Bruins are also only the second team to go from First Four to the Final Four, with 2011 VCU the first. It's necessary to point out that because UCLA played Michigan State in the First Four, it's possible some of these BCG brackets went with the Spartans to make a run and didn't alter their picks before brackets locked. If Michigan's final shot attempts went in, things would have looked very differently, however. About 7.80 percent of BCG brackets had Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Houston in the Final Four — the second-most picked grouping of teams. Only the four No. 1 seeds together were a more popular pick at 8.04 percent. If that 7.80 percent happened, it would have easily been the best result in BCG history going to 2011, as the top mark is 1.61 percent in 2015. Where do we go from here? Gonzaga was, by far, the most popular national champion pick at 38.82 percent. In total, slightly over half of BCG brackets (50.71 percent) still have their title winner playing. For comparison with the 2019 tournament, that number was only 11.7 percent — Duke went out in the Elite Eight and was the national champion in 39.2 percent of BCG brackets. Team Percent picked to win the title (1) Gonzaga 38.82 (1) Baylor 8.43 (2) Houston 3.22 (11) UCLA 0.24 And if you think the 0.025 percent seems low when it comes to going 4-for-4 on Final Four, it's actually one of the better results for BCG users going back to 2011. But the top mark remains 2015 at 1.61 percent. That year, undefeated No. 1 Kentucky, No. 1 Duke, No. 1 Wisconsin and No. 7 Michigan State reached the national semifinals. Those four teams' seeds added up to 10, bested only by the total of nine in 2012. Not surprisingly, the two worst years for Final Four picks correspond with huge combined seed numbers: 2011 and 2013. The 2011 tournament featured No. 3 UConn, No. 4 Kentucky No. 8 Butler and No. 11 VCU, while 2013 had No. 9 Wichita State and two No. 4 seeds (Michigan and Syracuse). YEAR PERCENT OF BRACKETS WITH PERFECT FINAL FOUR Combined Seeds Number 2011 0.0 26 2012 0.31 9 2013 0.0 18 2014 0.006 18 2015 1.61 10 2016 0.09 15 2017 0.003 12 2018 0.003 16 2019 0.02 11 2021 0.025 15 2022 March Madness 🏆 CHAMPIONS: Kansas wins the 2022 the national championship BRACKET TRACKER: How every bracket busted TOURNAMENT REWIND: See the final bracket STORE: Shop Kansas championship gear | More official NCAA tournament fits LISTEN: March Madness 365 podcast | Exclusive interviews & latest analysis March Madness brackets: How do seeds perform in the Final Four? When thinking about Final Four picks, what should you look for? READ MORE How much experience coaches have when they reach their first Final Four A look at the years of experience (as a head coach) it took each NCAA coach to reach the Final Four in March Madness. READ MORE How First Four teams do in the NCAA tournament Here is how at-large participants in the First Four have done since 2011 and why you should consider picking one in your NCAA bracket. READ MORE