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Daniel Wilco & Zach Pekale | March 13, 2022

The AP No. 1 men's basketball team is far from a lock to win the NCAA tournament

Full replay: UMBC's historic 16-over-1 upset vs. Virginia in 2018

It seems like a safe pick — riding with the top-ranked team before the start of the NCAA tournament, straight to the top of your bracket challenge game leaderboard. In theory, picking the No. 1 team from the final AP Top 25 poll should mean that team has a great chance to win the NCAA tournament, right? 

Well, not exactly. It’s happened just once since 2001 and only four times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

That cold fact hasn’t deterred couch bracketologists, though. Looking at data from the past 10 NCAA tournaments, taken from millions of brackets, the team that finishes No. 1 in the final AP poll before the tournament has been selected to win it all in roughly 23 percent of brackets. Yet only one of those 10 teams — Kentucky in 2012 – actually ran the table.

That Kentucky team was hardly a runaway choice among bracket-pickers, too. The Wildcats were tabbed to win it all in only 19.57 percent of the brackets in 2012. Only Gonzaga in 2013 — selected to win the tournament in just 4.87 percent of brackets — Villanova in 2017, selected to win in 12.25 percent of brackets, and Virginia in 2018, selected to win in 16.46 percent of brackets, generated less faith among Bracket Challenge Game participants over the past 10 NCAA tournaments, among AP No. 1 teams.

And the participants' collective hesitation on all three of those schools was warranted! More on that below.

Year

School (record)

Picked to win championship

Picked to be upset in 1st rd.

Result

2021 Gonzaga (26-0) 38.82% 1.55% National runner-up
2019 Duke (29-5) 39.12% 1.46% Elite Eight
2018

Virginia (31-2)

16.46% 2.06% Round of 64
2017 Villanova (31-3) 12.25% 1.88% Round of 32

2016

Kansas (30-4)

21.42%

1.32%

Elite Eight

2015

Kentucky (34-0)

34.2%

1.1%

Final Four

2014

Florida (32-2)

21.28%

1.02%

Final Four

2013

Gonzaga (31-2)

4.87%

1.23%

Round of 32

2012

Kentucky (32-2)

19.57%

0.68%

National champion

2011

Ohio State (32-2)

20.32%

0.46%

Sweet 16

The 2012 Wildcats, led by Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Doron Lamb, among others, won their six tournament games by an average of 11.83 points (none by fewer than eight points) on their way to the program’s eighth national title. It was the first time since Duke in 2001 — a team led by All-Americans Shane Battier and Jay Williams — that a team ranked No. 1 in the final AP poll captured the national championship.

Even if choosing the AP No. 1 to win it all is far from a guarantee, it’s much safer than picking that team to be upset in the first round. Still, about one percent of the millions of brackets we looked at over the last 10 NCAA tournaments did that — picked the No. 1 team in the final AP poll to be upset by a No. 16 seed. A friendly reminder that ONE No 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed in the history of the NCAA men's basketball tournament – UMBC over Virginia in 2018.

In 2018, Virginia finished the season at No. 1 in the AP poll, yet the Cavaliers were picked to be upset in the first round in 2.06 percent of brackets, a record-high for the period we examined. Sure enough, the Cavaliers lost to the Ramblers, by 20 points no less. Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to not reach the Round of 32 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That result surpassed 2013 Gonzaga and 2017 Villanova for the earliest departure for an AP No. 1 in the past 10 NCAA tournaments.

Lyles leads UMBC over Virginia

In 2019, AP No. 1 Duke, which entered Selection Sunday with a 29-5 regular-season record, was picked to lose to No. 16 seed North Dakota State in 1.46 percent of brackets. Instead, the Blue Devils handled the Bison 85-62 to start their run to the Elite Eight, where Duke fell to Michigan State 68-67. That Duke team was also picked in 39.12 percent of brackets to win the national championship, which was overwhelmingly the highest percentage from our 10-season examination.

So what lessons are to be learned from this? Mainly an affirmation for bracket players: Records — and rankings — don’t matter as much in March.

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