If there’s one thing the NCAA tournament is known for, it’s, well, madness. When the first round begins, 64 teams enter and less than a month later, only one will walk out as a champion.
What does this mean? Upsets. Lots, and lots, of upsets.
That’s nothing new. If anything, upsets are synonymous with the month of March. But where are those upsets most likely to occur?
Other than 2011, when the Southeast and Southwest regionals made a one-time appearance, we’ve had the same four regionals since 2007: East, West, South and Midwest. And looking at the tournament history for those years gives us some interesting insights.
For starters, if you’re a top-ranked team, cross your fingers that you don’t end up in the Midwest. That includes 2021, when there were five upsets by teams seeded at least five seeds lower thanks to the runs by No. 12 Oregon State, No. 11 Syracuse and No. 8 Loyola Chicago taking out No. 1 Illinois.
| East | West | South | Midwest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5 (4) | 3 (2) | 4 (3) | 7 (5) |
| 2019 | 4 (1) | 5 (1) | 5 (2) | 5 (1) |
| 2018 | 4 (1) | 4 (3) | 9 (4) | 3 (2) |
| 2017 | 5 (3) | 3 (3) | 2 (1) | 4 (2) |
| 2016 | 4 (2) | 4 (2) | 4 (2) | 7 (5) |
| 2015 | 5 (3) | 2 (1) | 3 (2) | 2 (1) |
| 2014 | 5 (2) | 3 (1) | 7 (4) | 5 (4) |
| 2013 | 5 (1) | 8 (5) | 5 (3) | 2 (2) |
| 2012 | 2 (0) | 4 (1) | 4 (3) | 7 (4) |
| 2011 | 4 (2) | 3 (0) | N/A | N/A |
| 2010 | 7 (4) | 4 (1) | 3 (2) | 6 (2) |
| 2009 | 3 (1) | 4 (0) | 2 (1) | 6 (3) |
| 2008 | 2 (0) | 4 (3) | 1 (0) | 6 (5) |
| 2007 | 4 (0) | 2 (1) | 2 (0) | 4 (2) |
The craziest any regional has gotten in the past 13 years was last 2018, when the South decided to have no rules. Out of the region's 15 games, nine were upsets, and four of those were major upsets.
It started off with the most shocking game in NCAA tournament history, as 16-seed UMBC beat 1-seed Virginia. Throw in a 13-seed upset for fun, then watch as 11-seed Loyola Chicago became just the fourth 11-seed to make the Final Four.
The West in 2013 saw some chaos as well, with eight upsets in its 15 games. No. 12 seed Mississippi, No. 13 seed La Salle and No. 14 seed Harvard all wreaked havoc on brackets by pulling off first-round wins. In the Round of 32, No. 9 seed Wichita State took down AP No. 1 Gonzaga, then punched its ticket to the Final Four with a 70-66 win over No. 2 Ohio State in the Elite Eight.
That year was one of four that saw five major upsets in one regional. Besides that year and in 2021, the other two were in 2016 and 2008, both in the Midwest regional. The Midwest in 2016 saw No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee shock No. 2 seed Michigan State and Syracuse become the first No. 10 seed to ever reach the Final Four. In 2008, the Midwest regional was the stage upon which a little-known guard named Steph Curry took his No. 10 seed Davidson Wildcats all the way to the Elite Eight.
But as fun as upsets are, a perfect regional is also something to marvel at. The closest we've come in the past 11 years was in 2008's South regional, where the only upset of its 15 games came when No. 5 seed Michigan State took down No. 4 seed Pittsburgh 65-54 in the Round of 32. Thrilling.
In the end, does the name of the regional a team ends up in really have any bearing on their fate? Probably not. But if there's one thing the NCAA tournament has taught us, it's that probably matter little in March.
