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Wayne Staats | | March 4, 2019

Women's basketball top-16 reveal: Breaking down the NCAA committee's latest rankings

March is here to bring the madness in women's basketball

A handful of upsets shook up the seed lines, but Baylor women's basketball remains No. 1.

The NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee again had the Lady Bears No. 1 overall in its top-16 reveal on Monday, March 4 — two weeks before the selection show. Baylor is 27-1 and has won 19 in a row.

But after Baylor, there were changes thanks to some upsets since the first top-16 reveal on February 11. Louisville would still be a No. 1 seed if the season ended today, occupying the second spot on the top line. But Notre Dame and UConn are new on the 1-seed line, taking the spots previously held by Oregon and Mississippi State.

TOP-16 REVEAL: Baylor leads the new rankings

Here's a look at the new Top 16 — and what's changed:

NCAA women's basketball tournament: Second Top-16 reveal

Current seed line Team (Record) Seed line change since first REVEAL
1 Baylor (27-1) --
1 Louisville (27-2) --
1 Notre Dame (27-3) Up 1
1 UConn (27-2) Up 1
2 Oregon (27-3) Down 1
2 Mississippi State (27-2) Down 1
2 Stanford (25-4) --
2 Iowa (23-6) Up 1
3 NC State (25-4) Down 1
3 Maryland (26-3) --
3 Oregon State (24-6) --
3 South Carolina (21-8) Up 1
4 Miami (FL) (24-7) --
4 Iowa State (22-7) --
4 Syracuse (22-7) NR
4 Texas A&M (23-6) NR

Changes on the No. 1 seed line

Baylor is again in the first spot. Louisville is also in the same position as the second overall seed, even with the Cardinals falling to Miami on February 17. The Hurricanes are again a No. 4 seed.

However, Asia Durr scored 47 point as Louisville beat top-10 NC State by 30 last week. Plus, with UConn moving to a No. 1 seed, the Cardinals' 78-69 win from January 31 looks even better than it did at the time.

Unlike Louisville, however, both Mississippi State and Oregon dropped to No. 2 seeds after sustaining losses. The Bulldogs lost once, by eight to Missouri, though they did respond by beating South Carolina and Texas A&M, two teams on the Nos. 3 and 4 seed lines in Monday's reveal.

NAISMITH TROPHY: Here are the semifinalists

Oregon lost twice, though the Ducks fell to only a No. 2 seed. Oregon lost consecutive games to Oregon State (a No. 3 seed) and then UCLA. Since then, however, the Ducks are 3-0.

Because of those losses, defending national champion Notre Dame and UConn both moved up from No. 2 seeds to No. 1 seeds.

Here's the regional breakdown:


  1. UConn
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Oregon State
  4. Miami (FL)


  1. Louisville
  2. Stanford
  3. Maryland
  4. Iowa State


  1. Baylor
  2. Iowa
  3. NC State
  4. Texas A&M


  1. Notre Dame
  2. Oregon
  3. South Carolina
  4. Syracuse

Moving on up:

Despite some movement at the top, there wasn't too much change elsewhere. Among the teams remaining from the first top-16 reveal, Iowa and South Carolina were the only non-new No. 1 seeds to move up on the seed line.

The Hawkeyes moved up one seed line to No. 2; South Carolina is up to a No. 3 — though the move is up only one ranking spot, as it was the first No. 4 seed last time. Now the Gamecocks are the final No. 3.

Iowa lost to Indiana 75-73 on February 21, but the Hawkeyes won their other four games since the first top-16 reveal. That includes an 86-73 win against Maryland on February 17 in the teams' only regular-season meeting. Iowa's Megan Gustafson had 31 points and 17 rebounds in the win.

As for South Carolina, the Gamecocks lost to Kentucky and Mississippi State since the first reveal (and also lost to UConn the same night as that first reveal), but they're 17-4 since a 4-4 start.

WOMEN'S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT: Selection show information

Hello to new faces

Two teams from the first top-16 reveal dropped out of Monday's latest release: Marquette and Gonzaga. Marquette was a No. 3 seed, while Gonzaga was a No. 4.

Those drops gave room to Syracuse and Texas A&M at No. 15 and No. 16 overall in the final two spots on the No. 4 seed line.

Texas A&M fell to Mississippi State on February 17, but the Aggies also won at Kentucky on Thursday. With Syracuse, the Orange lost to both NC State and Notre Dame, but Syracuse also won at ranked Florida State and can show off its nonconference win against Texas A&M on November 14.

What's next

If the last three weeks taught us anything, it's that these seeings can and will change. The ACC has three teams in the top 10, the Pac-12 has three in the top 11 and a Maryland win against Iowa in the Big Ten tournament could lead to some changes in that order. The list goes on.

With two weeks until the selection show, a lot can change.

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