How accurate are College Football Playoff predictions?

College football is an unpredictable beast, and that’s what we love about it. It only takes a loss or two for a juggernaut to miss out on the College Football Playoff.

For the top teams, just about every game is an elimination game. And even the best suqads are prone to slip-ups. That creates an extremely unpredictable environment, as you well know. But just how unpredictable?

Here were NCAA.com’s projections before the 2015 season. Spoiler alert: they weren’t pretty. For my section in particular, tweets like this ensued:

"Jeremy Johnson is the most dynamic QB the Tigers have had since Cam Newton." @EojLlezoob pic.twitter.com/yXHkkH5LyY

— Noah (@Adams4Pres) October 25, 2015

Here is how the NCAA.com staff fared as a whole:

2016 NCAA.com CFP predictions

Writer	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Correct Picks
Joe Boozell	Auburn	Ohio State	Baylor	Notre Dame	0/4
Tyler Greenawalt	Ohio State	TCU	Georgia	Oregon	0/4
Courtney Martinez	Ohio State	TCU	Auburn	Oregon	0/4
Sam Richmond	Ohio State	TCU	Alabama	Oregon	1/4
Craig Thomas	Ohio State	Baylor	Auburn	Clemson	1/4
Eric Vander Voort	TCU	Ohio State	LSU	Boise State	0/4
Austin Vaughn	Arizona	Ohio State	Alabama	TCU	1/4

My eyes hurt. As a staff, we went 3-for-28. And yes, we fully intend to do staff predictions for the 2017 College Football Playoff next week; predictions are fun to make, and a year later, they’re even more fun to look back on and (usually) laugh at.

With that said, NCAA.com wasn’t the only outlet to make preseason predictions for the 2016 College Football Playoff. Saturday Down South compiled a list of eight writers and analysts from eight different college football publications in 2015, and here's how they did:

2016 CFP predictions

Writer/Outlet	Team	Team	Team	Team	Correct Picks
Ralph D. Russo, Associated Press	Auburn	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Baylor	0/4
Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports	Ohio State	Auburn	Alabama	Baylor	1/4
Steve Silverman, Bleacher Report	Ohio State	Michigan State	Alabama	TCU	2/4
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports	TCU	Auburn	Ohio State	Clemson	1/4
Brett McMurphy, ESPN	TCU	USC	Ohio State	Auburn	0/4
Tim Brando, FOX Sports	Ohio State	TCU	USC	Alabama	1/4
Kevin McGuire, NBC Sports	Ohio State	Oregon	TCU	Auburn	0/4
Gene Wang, Washington Post	Ohio State	Baylor	Alabama	TCU	1/4

This group of writers and analysts went 6-for-32. Better than our numbers, sure, but not exactly the kind of work you’re hanging on your mother’s refrigerator. Here are a few interesting stats and tidbits from the combined sample sizes:

• In the 15 sets of predictions above, people went 9-for-60 in projecting College Football Playoff teams correctly. That’s an even 15 percent.
• Of the 15 sets of predictions, seven had zero teams correct.
• Nobody picked Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff; one person picked Michigan State.
• Just one writer, Steve Silverman of Bleacher Report, correctly predicted at least two teams.
• Of the nine correct picks, six were Alabama. Going into last season, the Crimson Tide had won three national championships in six years.
• Every single set of predictions included Ohio State. Ohio State did not make the playoff.
   

It's easy to draw parallels between this exercise and others in the world of college sports. Take March Madness, for instance. NCAA tournament brackets are extremely unpredictable. They’re lauded for being next to impossible to fill out with a smidge of confidence, and rightfully so.

Projecting College Football Playoff teams prior to the season is similar. It’s fun, you’re probably going to be wrong, and once you are, there’s nothing else to do but root for craziness.