Through Week 12 of the 2021 college football season, you can count the number of remaining undefeated teams in the FBS on one hand, with twos finger to spare. Just three teams still have a zero in the loss column, after Baylor knocked off Oklahoma in Week 11.
In the first six seasons of the College Football Playoff (the 2014 through 2019 seasons), there was an average of 2.8 undefeated teams through Week 12, so this year's three undefeated teams roughly falls in line with recent history.
I analyzed each of the remaining undefeated teams' upcoming schedules, as well as traditional and advanced statistics, in an effort to predict when each of the remaining undefeated teams is most likely to lose its first game this season. These opinions are mine and mine alone.
The teams below are listed in descending order of their College Football Playoff rankings, as of Nov. 16.
No. 1 Georgia (12-0)
Next game: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
Predicted first loss: None
The Bulldogs are ranked No. 1 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, plus the latest AP Top 25 poll and USA TODAY Coaches Poll. They're also the top team in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which reflects average point differential and strength of schedule. Their only remaining regular-season game is against Georgia Tech, which is 3-8 through Week 12. Georgia has won the last three games in the series by a combined 100 points.
Georgia is just one win away from an undefeated regular season.
No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0)
Next game: AAC Championship vs. Houston
Predicted first loss: Bowl game
Houston actually sits alone in first place in the American Athletic Conference standings through Week 12, given that the Cougars have played one more conference game than the Bearcats.
Cincinnati should be expected to win its remaining regular-season game and if it follows through on that expectation, it would be the team to beat in the AAC Championship. That would lead to an invite to one of the best bowl games in the country, whether that's in the College Football Playoff or elsewhere, and that's where I think the Bearcats will suffer their first loss of the season.
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