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Alberto Camargo | | November 3, 2022

DI men's soccer championship bracket predictions, less than two weeks before selections

College soccer storylines and postseason predictions

The NCAA Men's Soccer Committee released a midseason top-16 ranking on Oct. 28, indicating which teams the committee sees as the best in DI men's soccer. We are now just under two weeks from selections being announced. The selection show will be streamed on at 1 p.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 14. 

This is my prediction of how the tournament bracket could look once all conference champions have been decided and the remaining at-large bids have been determined. It was no easy task, and even in the few days since I finalized my predictions, several upsets will have changed how some of these teams rank in the eyes of the committee.

SCOREBOARD: Keep up with every final score in DI men's soccer as the regular season comes to a close

Here's what the NCAA Men's Soccer Committee will value when making its at-large selections and determining which 16 teams are seeded, and therefore, get the first-round bye:

  • Won-lost record
  • Strength of schedule
  • Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships

When considering the selection of at-large teams for the men’s soccer championship, this is what the committee values (not necessarily in priority order):

  • Adjusted Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
  • Head-to-head competition
  • Results versus common opponents
  • Strength and results against nonconference opponents
  • Results against teams already selected (including automatic qualifiers with an RPI of 1-75)
  • Late-season performance in last eight games (strength and results).
  • Strength and results against conference opponents (regular-season and postseason)

Note: All projections were made based on results through Oct. 30.

2022 DI men's soccer bracket predictions, two weeks from selections

Star denotes automatic qualifier*

First Round Second round Second round First round
UC Santa Barbara*     High Point*
Tulsa (1) Washington* (3) Duke* Marshall
Memphis     North Carolina
Central Arkansas (16) Saint Louis* (14) Cornell Charlotte
Hofstra     UCLA
Pittsburgh (9) Maryland* (11) SMU Missouri State*
Fairleigh Dickinson*     Air Force*
Seton Hall (8) Vermont* (6) Stanford Denver*
Army*     Xavier
Georgetown* (5) Penn* (7) Lipscomb* Clemson
FIU*     Wake Forest
Elon* (12) UNC Greensboro* (10) Portland* Oregon St.
Western Michigan     Butler
Indiana (13) Louisville (15) Akron* Virginia
Quinnipiac*     Cleveland St.*
New Hampshire (4) Syracuse (2) Kentucky* Ohio St.

Here's my bracket (click or tap to open in a new tab or window).

DI men's soccer tournament bracket predictionsAlberto Camargo's predictions for the 2022 DI men's soccer tournament bracket

Top 16 seeds, predicted

  1. Washington
  2. Kentucky
  3. Duke
  4. Syracuse
  5. Penn
  6. Stanford
  7. Lipscomb
  8. Vermont
  9. Maryland
  10. Portland
  11. SMU
  12. UNC Greensboro
  13. Louisville
  14. Cornell
  15. Akron
  16. Saint Louis

Note: A couple of these teams have lost in recent days. Even though Lipscomb lost to FGCU and Portland to San Diego on Oct. 29, I still think the Bison have enough to get through their conference tournaments and the Pilots can see through the rest of the WCC regular season. I also tried to reward conference tournament champions, with Syracuse, Stanford, Louisville and SMU being the exceptions here. 

23 Automatic Qualifiers

Projecting the winners of every conference, here are the 23 AQs in the DI men's soccer tournament field. The remaining spots are given at-large bids.

Conference Automatic bid Rpi (as of 10/30)
ACC Duke 2
America East Vermont 13
American Florida International 32
Atlantic 10 Saint Louis 19
ASUN Lipscomb 12
Big East Georgetown 29
Big South High Point 40
Big Ten Maryland 14
Big West UC Santa Barbara 44
Colonial Elon 31
Horizon League Cleveland State 69
Ivy League Penn 9
MAC Akron 18
MAAC Quinnipiac 74
Missouri Valley Missouri State 26
Northeast Fairleigh Dickinson 54
Pac-12 Washington 4
Patriot League Army 60
Southern UNC Greensboro 15
Summit League Denver 27
Sun Belt Kentucky 1
WAC Air Force 33
WCC Portland 16

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